High profile divorces are not happy events. They are often surrounded with media speculation about who gains more in the final settlement. Political ‘divorces’ are no less acrimonious and the world is about to experience a long process that will, in two years’ time, see Britain leave the European Union.
When the British Prime Minister triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty neither she nor the EU leadership where under any illusion that this would be a simple process where everyone would be happy with the results achieved.
In her letter to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, Theresa May used friendly diplomatic language to express her desire for a “special partnership” between Britain and the EU post-Brexit. But she also warned that failure to reach an overall deal on trade and other issues could mean that cooperation with the EU on security and the prevention of terror is likely to suffer.
Although political posturing meant to impress home audiences are likely to continue, what really matters is what goes on behind closed doors until a final agreement is reached.
There are differences of opinions on how negotiations should proceed.
Britain would like to negotiate from the very start a package agreement that will include, among other things, a trade deal, financial compensation relating to the withdrawal from the EU as well as security issues.
The EU leaders seem to prefer a more structured approach where the ‘divorce’ settlements are first negotiated. Mr Tusk said in Malta on Friday the EU would not pursue a “punitive” approach, noting that the consequences of the UK’s departure would be punitive enough.
Negotiations will be further complicated on both sides because of local issues. In the case of Britain, Scotland and Northern Ireland want to stay in the EU and are threatening to pull out of the United Kingdom if the final post-Brexit deal is not favourable to them.
In the case of the remaining 27 EU member states, there are differences of opinion on what the final agreement with the UK should look like.
Some studies have indicated that Malta is one of the EU countries most likely to suffer because of Brexit. Our traditional links with Britain could be weakened because of new restrictions on both visible and invisible trade, especially in the tourism sector. There will, of course, also be benefits for Malta, particularly in the financial services sector as some UK-based companies may decide to relocate to an English-speaking EU State.
The EU and Britain are now entering the realpolitik stage when politicians sweat it out in long and often tough negotiations that will hopefully lead to a new special partnership.
The EU needs Britain as much as Britain needs the EU in the post-Brexit era. As trade between both partners is already substantial, it will be in everybody’s interest that unsurmountable trade barriers are not created to ‘punish’ the UK for leaving.
EU leaders are aware of Britain’s valuable nuclear deterrent and security expertise that could help them in the fight against terrorism and other treats that may come from eastern borders.
While no one can predict the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations, a clinical analysis of what is at stake leads to cautious optimism that, in the end, there will be a new dawn for a UK-EU partnership.