European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has launched a White Paper offering five options for the European Union’s future direction after Brexit. The EU’s 27 leaders, without Britain, will discuss the proposals at their summit in Rome on March 25, which will mark the EU’s 60th anniversary.
Mr Juncker did not come up with a grand sweeping vision of the EU’s future but rather a sombre and somewhat realistic set of choices for the bloc to contemplate as it looks ahead and addresses its many challenges. With euroscepticism and populism on the rise in Europe, such an approach is understandable – people want concrete solutions rather than flowery language about the European venture.
The choices presented in the White Paper range from reducing the EU to a Single Market to a federalist scenario where the bloc agrees to deepen its political and economic integration (including the ability to raise revenue through tax) and give more powers to the Union’s institutions.
Three other options are presented between these two opposing choices. ‘Carrying on’ is where the EU stays the present course and continues to deepen the Single Market, share some military responsibilities and speaks with one voice on foreign affairs. ‘Those who want more do more’ is in a nutshell a platform for a multi-speed Europe where those who choose to will integrate further in areas such as defence, economic governance, migration and justice.
And ‘Doing less more efficiently’ is a scenario where the EU does more but in a reduced number of areas, such as the creation of a fully resourced European Border and Coast Guard, a single voice on foreign policy and the establishment of a European Defence Union. In this latter scenario other areas such as regional development, health, employment and social policy are left to national governments.
The first and last options presented by Mr Juncker, namely reducing the EU to the Single Market or going in the exact opposite direction by forging ahead towards a federal Europe, should both be dismissed outright. The EU is more than just a group of countries that guarantees the free movement of goods, capital, services and people. It is also a union of common values, solidarity and rule of law, which has brought about an unprecedented level of peace, stability and prosperity ever since it was established, and which, as a bloc, is a force for good on the international stage.
On the other hand, in today’s political climate there is certainly no appetite for a federal Europe; besides, certain policy areas are without doubt best handled at the Member State level. ‘Carrying on’ is also not an option as there are areas where more co-operation at an EU level is definitely needed.
The most sensible, and realistic, way forward, therefore, would be for the EU to go forward with a combination of two of Mr Juncker’s options, that of a multi-speed Europe and an EU which does more but in a reduced number of areas. A two-tier EU could see the first group, presumably including most of the eurozone members, press ahead with much closer political integration, pursuing the goal of “ever closer union” in Europe.
The second group of countries would be free to opt for further integration at their own pace at a later stage. However, as it faces the twin challenges of Brexit and a new inward-looking administration in the US, it is crucial that all EU Member States agree to strengthen cooperation in foreign and security policy, external border security as well as the Single Market. It is also essential for the EU to speak with one voice in the global arena and to continue promoting its values across the world.
Rather than a threat to the EU, Brexit should now be considered as an opportunity for the bloc to renew itself and to create a two-tier EU that will keep all its Member States firmly within the Union.