Up to some years ago the debate between europhiles and eurosceptics was mainly on whether the EU should persist in its inevitable drive towards a political union. Countries like Britain generally resented this drive to federalism and systematically fought any attempt for an “ever closer union” by staying out of the euro and demanding exemptions from EU directives that appeared to impinge on their sovereignty.
But the majority of EU citizens felt quite content to be part of the union. The most enthusiastic supporters were the ‘club med’ countries: Italy, France, Spain and Greece. But the economic crisis that started in 2008 has changed the mood in most EU countries. Put simply, many EU citizens have never felt so grumpy.
The protracted EU economic crisis that is making Europe’s future so uncertain has damaged the prestige of the EU. While EU political leaders often resort to federalist rhetoric in their search for the Holy Grail of economic revival, ordinary Europeans feel they have had enough of the promises of a brighter future as all they see is economic stagnation, rising unemployment, and falling living standards.
While no country has so far left or was forced to leave the EU, the British Government is promising a referendum that will give the opportunity to Britons to decide their future in the EU. The current weaknesses in the British economy could well make the exit of Britain from the EU a reality. But not joining the euro has very different consequences from leaving the EU completely.
When heavyweight politicians like Lord Lawson argue that it would be good for Britain to leave the EU and look for “real economic opportunities in emerging markets”, many ordinary Britons may buy into this argument. The EU, after all, is not delivering the goods to those millions of British workers who are without a job.
But, with all its weaknesses and lack of sound political leadership, the European single market is still worth preserving. The idea of trading with developing countries may seem very romantic but the realities of doing business with countries like China, Russia and India are daunting. So while the British are likely to continue enjoying one of their favourite pastimes – bashing the EU – they may ultimately decide that selling their goods and services to Europe is not as tough as selling them elsewhere.
What is surprising is the growing grumpiness of other more traditional supporters of EU integration. France and Germany always had a special relationship in their leadership of the EU. But over the past few years their different economic fortunes has led them to drift apart quite remarkably.
France is passing through one of its worse economic patches and no wonder the French feel so grumpy. France continues to run a large trade deficit and its unemployment at 10.6 per cent is at a 17-year high. Germany’s export machine continues to roll on and unemployment is at a 23-year low.
What we are seeing today is the inability of the EU institutions to come up with solutions to the declining competitiveness of most member states’ economies
Public opinion surveys released by Pew Research Centre confirmed that the sentiments of French people are drifting further away from those of the Germans, even if in both countries euro scepticism is growing. In 2007, just before the current economic crisis, 68 per cent of Germans and 62 per cent of the French were favourable to the EU. Today, the German figure has dropped to 60 per cent, but the French one is in free fall: only 41 per cent are now favourable, less than the eurosceptic Britain and ahead only of Greece and the Czech Republic.
While the going was good and EU citizens were seeing their quality of life improving as a result of booming economies, the whole concept of European integration could easily be sold by political leaders. But what we are seeing today is the inability of the EU institutions to come up with solutions to the declining competitiveness of most member states’ economies.
Locally, the debate on EU membership is practically non-existent. But after nine years of membership, the expectations of many that the EU would solve our economic weaknesses and deliver much higher standards of living are less pronounced than they were a decade ago.
We are now experiencing the stark reality which, quite honestly, some of us always knew existed: our future is what we make it. The single market to which we have access through membership is the best market we can aim for.
But we still have to compete through higher productivity and competitiveness to win over business.
johncassarwhite@yahoo.com