I cannot help but feel worried about the fact that some people seem to believe that because the Labour Party has a new leader who has performed excellently to date while the Nationalist Party continues with its poor performance in government a Labour victory at the next general election is almost guaranteed. In reality, this is not the case.

First of all, remember that there is a world of difference between grumbling against certain government measures and voting for the political party in opposition. It is an acknowledged fact that many Nationalist voters spend about four and a half years grumbling against the PN and then, as the general election approaches, they get carried away by their emotions to the extent that eventually they vote PN once again. A few mass meetings, a catchy election song, the usual empty promises from Lawrence Gonzi and these people vote with their hearts instead of using their minds.

Secondly, there are areas of Malta and Gozo where the PN is firmly entrenched and where people have voted PN for many long years now. Keep in mind that the Maltese are rather conservative in their electoral preferences and that many are afraid of change. It is incredible but true that a substantial amount of potential voters prefer to retain the status quo, even if it means retaining mediocrity in government rather than bringing about a change at the top because change in itself means a certain amount of uncertainty that some people are afraid of.

Thirdly, the PN has power-bases in important institutions that have a decisive influence on new voters. One such power-base is the University where the PN is very strong in all its structures. However, the PN network extends through other important areas such as big business, industry, tourism, etc., with well-placed pro-PN people at the top who work hand in hand with the PN Administration so that the government's power of incumbency is exploited to maximum effect at a general election.

As things stand at the moment, I believe that the PL has a fighting chance to win the next general election but much more work is needed to ensure electoral victory. Geographical areas, social institutions and groups where support for the PL is weak have to be specifically targeted in all the PL's work and activities. For example, I still think that the PL media output caters too much for a particular section of Maltese society to the exclusion of important others. Today, the term "working class" is much more vast than in Dom Mintoff's time and the party message has to reach and, above all, appeal to all workers, including white-collar ones and top executives.

A fatal flaw of the past has to be avoided like the plague. This concerns looking inwardly instead of outwardly. I have stated, time and again, that it is absolutely unimportant how Labourites view the PL, what is crucially important is how non-Labourites evaluate the party. I have always believed that, sometimes, such events as general conferences can bring more harm than good to the PL because the wholesale enthusiasm prevalent at such events can serve to deceive one into thinking that a situation is more favourable than it actually is.

General elections are not won by the votes of party delegates alone but also by those of the man/woman in the street whose participation in politics is limited to voting at election times. I will never forget the reception Alfred Sant was given when he entered the conference hall of the National Labour Centre at Ħamrun just before the general election of 2008. There was a delirium of enthusiasm, cheering and clapping so that one would have thought that Lawrence Gonzi could have thrown in the towel because the outcome of the general election was a foregone conclusion. Alas, a few weeks later, Labour was defeated because, at the end of the day, the decisive element that tilts the scales is not the vote of the convinced Labourites but that of people who shun active participation in politics.

To conclude, Joseph Muscat has brought about a positive and peaceful revolution in Maltese politics and he has changed and modernised the PL. However, a lot of hard work remains to be done. It is worrying that already many people are convinced that the PN is doomed to defeat. Let us not repeat the mistake of 2008 when the Nationalists, albeit by highly undemocratic and questionable means, managed to snatch victory from the jaws of seemingly certain defeat because of certain mistakes committed by Labour.

A Nationalist victory at the next general election would be nothing short of a national tragedy. Malta needs Labour.