With the general election done and dusted and no nationwide polls scheduled for the next year, 2018 could turn out to be a relatively ‘quiet’ year politically – but only on the surface. Daphne Caruana Galizia’s assassination will continue to reverberate and her work may yet have serious political ramifications. Keith Micallef reports.

DCG murder case may take years

Proceedings are set to continue against the three men accused of the car bomb attack which on October 16 took the life of Ms Caruana Galizia. But it may be years before the case comes to a close.

Despite Magistrate Claire Stafrace Zammit’s decree that there was enough evidence for Vince Muscat, George Degiorgio and his brother Alfred Degiorgio to stand trial, the compilation of evidence will take its normal course.

Though the court must, within 30 days, pronounce itself on whether the defendants should stand trial, the standard procedure adopted by the Attorney General’s Office is to wait for all the evidence to be presented before pronouncing itself.

As from the next sitting, which is scheduled for February 1, hearings will be held every six weeks. For every session, a file with fresh evidence is sent to the AG.  It is only when this process is complete that the three defendants can be formally indicted.

“This means that it is next to impossible for the trial by jury to be held within the next two years,” sources close to the court case told this newspaper.

Meanwhile the presumed masterminds of the attack are still at large and police investigations continue…

MEP report rule of law

In the aftermath of Ms Caruana Galizia’s killing, a European Parliament delegation came to Malta on a fact-finding mission in the wake of concerns that the rule of law was not being respected. Rather than allay these concerns, the visit only served to make the MEPs “even more worried”, as Green MEP Sven Giegold remarked.

The unclear separation of powers and the accumulation of powers enjoyed by the Attorney General were among the top concerns raised by the delegation.

The repercussions, however, may be even worse. In the coming months the delegation will be drawing up a report comprising a set of recommendations while keeping “a continued dialogue with the European Commission in the run-up to an Article 7 procedure”.

The latter translates to an infringement process which may be used against a Member State accused of violating fundamental EU values such as liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law. The worst-case scenario for Malta is suspension of its voting rights and exclusion from the decision-making process.

This would be an extreme measure, unprecedented in the EU’s history, but its possibility will fuel apprehension within government ranks.

Moreover, the risk of further embarrassment for Malta does not bode well in its quest to safeguard its highly-envied tax regime and financial services industry from Brussel’s harmonisation plan. Last month’s close shave, when Malta avoided being labelled as a tax haven in the European Parliament by a single vote, should be an eye opener.

Environment, good governance, roads

A massive €700 million investment to revamp the country’s road network over a seven-year period was arguably the most ambitious infrastructural project in Labour’s manifesto.

In a country renowned for shoddy roadworks and notorious potholes, such a bold plan might raise eyebrows. It is now time for the government to start delivering on this promise to prove critics wrong.

To date, however, the roads agency that will focus exclusively on the projects is yet to be officially set up. For this reason, 2018 has to be the year when this project is finally rolled out and the first so-called ‘visible deliverables’ are seen.

Meanwhile, controversies surrounding the privatisation of three State hospitals and the Żonqor Point university campus are unlikely to fade.

This means that it is next to impossible for the trial by jury to be held within the next two years

In the first case, the acquisition by American company Steward Health Care of the 30-year concession awarded in 2016 to Vitals Global Healthcare for the running of St Luke’s, Karin Grech and the Gozo General Hospital fuelled even more questions on the deal itself.

The next 12 months are thus crucial to start delivering on the promises, especially the new facilities and medical school in Gozo. So far that privatisation experience has left a rather bitter taste.

In the case of the so-called American University of Malta, is seems that the next 12 months will be a case of do or die. Despite fierce objections from the Opposition and environmental groups, in 2015 the government had leased out a plot of land, partly outside the development zone, for the construction of a new campus.

The ‘compromise’, as government put it at the time, was that the south of the island would reap great economic benefits from this educational institution which was meant to lure 4,000 students to Malta within a few years.

Two years down the line, the plan has so far failed to materialise, with a mere 15 students enrolling at the AUM in the first intake. The government has rejected demands to rescind the lease agreement for the Żonqor site, saying this would only be developed if the need arose.

If there is no major turnaround in the university’s prospects, it will be hard for the government to keep justifying its decision to reserve an ODZ area for private investors rather than for the people’s benefit.

Controversial legislation

From a legislative perspective, 2018 may be the year when cannabis for ‘recreational’ purposes and surrogacy become legal.

Last year, the Prime Minister pledged that if re-elected to government he would set the ball rolling on the debate for the introduction of recreational cannabis. Dr Muscat had said that he wanted to start the debate by the end of 2017.

However, the issue appears to have  been relegated to the back burner, possibly due to the negative opinion expressed by organisations like Caritas – a pioneer in drug rehabilitation programmes.

As for the issue of surrogacy, the government has long been sending messages that the existing IVF legislation discriminates against same-sex couples.

The issue is likely to be another sore point for the Nationalist Party, which in recent years has struggled to come to terms with ethical issues like gay marriage, gay adoption and divorce.

If push comes to shove, it will be interesting to see if PN MPs will be allowed a free vote by the leadership – something which did not happen under Simon Busuttil, to the point that the likes of Edwin Vassallo defied the party line.

Egrant, passport kickbacks, Panama Papers and Hillman inquiries

Nine months since the Egrant allegations against the Prime Minister’s wife came to light, we are no wiser – an inquiry into these claims is still pending.

Back in April, former Pilatus Bank employee Maria Efimova claimed that the secret Panama company by the name of Egrant belonged to Joseph Muscat’s wife Michelle. She also claimed that $1 million had been deposited into Egrant’s account by the daughter of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev.

The claim made in Daphne Caruana Galizia’s blog was vehemently denied by the Prime Minister, who then asked an inquiring magistrate to investigate the claim. He has vowed to resign on the spot should there be any shred of truth in the allegations.

Magistrate Aaron Bugeja was assigned to the case and the inquiry has not yet been concluded. The nation awaits with bated breath.

The same applies to a raft of other magisterial inquiries launched at the height of the 2017 election campaign as well as in its aftermath, into cases about which Ms Caruana Galizia had also written at length.

At the time of the Egrant claims, then Opposition leader Simon Busuttil accused Prime Minister’s chief of staff Keith Schembri of receiving kickbacks from the controversial cash-for-passports scheme, based on the leaked findings of the country’s anti-money laundering agency, the FIAU. The case had been assigned to Magistrate Natasha Galea Sciberras but is still pending.

Two weeks before the June 3 general election, a further inquiry was opened, also on the insistence of Dr Busuttil, this time in the wake of money laundering claims involving former Allied Newspaper managing director Adrian Hillman and Mr Schembri. Dr Busuttil famously turned up in court wielding eight box files of documentary evidence, requesting a magisterial inquiry.

Dr Busuttil described transactions between the two amounting to €650,000 as a “textbook case of bribes and money laundering”, while Mr Schembri and Mr Hillman have denied any wrongdoing.

The fourth pending inquiry is that launched last July, when Dr Busuttil, who was on his way out as PN leader, filed an application for a magisterial inquiry to be held into the connections of the Prime Minister, his chief of staff, Cabinet minister Konrad Mizzi and Mr Hillman, with the Panama Papers.

His move followed the lack of police action on the matter, as no investigation was launched following the Panama Papers revelations.

The application was also filed against Brian Tonna and Karl Cini from Nexia BT auditing firm, and Kasco general manager Malcolm Scerri. The inquiry, however, stalled from the very beginning, as the seven defendants, who deny all claims, challenged Magistrate Ian Farrugia’s decree upholding Dr Busuttil’s request for an inquiry.

The media is not privy to what stage each of these inquiries has reached. If they are concluded this year, 2018 could be the year when the three key figures widely credited with Labour’s resurrection – Dr Muscat, Dr Mizzi and Mr Schembri – find themselves having to defend the indefensible yet again, albeit shielded by their comfortable win at the last general election. Or they could be exonerated.

Will this year be their downfall or their redemption?

Political front – Should I stay or should I go?

By the looks of it, 2018 will be a transitional year for both major parties. Save for any dramatic developments, such as in the Egrant inquiry, the Prime Minister will be more than satisfied if he consolidates his present trust ratings which in recent months have reached historic highs.

Nonetheless, Dr Muscat’s political future will be higher on the agenda in the wake of his declaration that he will not be running in the next general election. While it may be early days to start looking at potential successors, it is an open secret that Deputy Prime Minister Chris Fearne and to a lesser extent MEP Miriam Dalli harbour leadership ambitions.

Yet, there are signs that Dr Muscat could be ‘persuaded’ to rethink his decision. Addressing a political activity before the festive period, former tourism minister Edward Zammit Lewis called on the Prime Minister, who was sitting by his side, to change his mind.

“We have become used to big victories…we are trying to persuade you not to step down and with you at the helm we want to remain like the Real Madrid of politics,” the former minister remarked.

It has long been rumoured that Dr Muscat was planning to end his political career on a high and land a top job in Brussels. While he might be on the right track for a triumphant exist, his standing at EU level has been dented as a result of the Egrant allegations, good governance issues and the focus on the island’s lack of adherence to rule of law. Consequently, his options may be narrowing.

On the other side of the political divide, 2018 will be a crucial year for PN leader Adrian Delia as he aims to build momentum for the European and local council elections which are less than 18 months away. Failure to make any inroads is not an option for his party or for his team, which are yet to win the complete trust of the grassroots.

Elected on the bounce of ‘a new way’ in politics, Dr Delia will seek to address once and for all issues related to his personal finances including pending tax arrears which are seriously denting his trust ratings among core party supporters who have good governance close to heart.

On a lighter note…

As from January 20, Valletta 2018 will be finally under way following years of preparation and a major investment from taxpayer’s money to make the European Capital of Culture look its best.

This will be a unique opportunity to rope in more people in the arts and unite the country, at least over culture. In the long term, the event aims to speed up Valletta’s regeneration, which is now well underway.

And on June 14, the Fifa World Cup gets under way in Russia. Though Italy’s conspicuous absence will mean that interest among Maltese football fans will not reach the usual highs, an unlikely victory for England might make the night of July 15 one to remember, especially for bar owners.