Pensions proved to be Silvio Berlusconi's downfall the first time he enjoyed power but this time the Italian prime minister is determined to avoid the social security stumbling block.

Painfully aware of a pensions stand-off with the unions that triggered the collapse of his 1994 government, the media tycoon turned politician would prefer to throw the political hot potato to the European Union.

"He knows something has to be done but it's a no-no politically which is why he's going through Europe," Vincenzo Galasso of Milan's Bocconi University said.

"Europe as an institution can do something because no one has to go back to the polls afterwards," Mr Galasso said.

A recent study by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), showed Italy to be the country most vulnerable to a pensions meltdown after Spain.

CSIS estimated pensions gobbled up more than a third of Italian government spending in 2000, and that could soar to 60 per cent by 2040 as the over 60s jump from almost a quarter of the population to nearly half.

And with the fragile Italian birth rate, there will be fewer workers to support them - one working adult for each pensioner in 2040, compared with 2.5 workers in 2000.

One mayor in northern Italy has even promised to light up the main square and festoon the town with ribbons for each newborn child to get residents to make babies and add some seconds to the demographic time-bomb.

Early this year Mr Berlusconi warned of an imminent crisis: "The pension system is absolutely destined to explode if we don't make changes. This is the hard truth that we must put to our citizens."

But he has changed tack as the powerful unions resist even watered-down changes. "We" has become "Europe".

"There is definitely the need to reform the welfare system, it is a wide ranging problem and Europe will have to present a reform proposal," the prime minister told an influential employers federation last month.

"We will try to get all the... member countries to reach an agreement on a welfare Maastricht," he added, referring to the agreement EU states reached about broad macro-economic policy.

Italy takes over the presidency of the EU on July 1, which gives Mr Berlusconi six months to push for a coordinated approach to the problem that economists say Italy must tackle.

Some see the timing of Mr Berlusconi's challenge to Europe as particularly crafty given that Romano Prodi, one of the few figures on the Italian left who could pose a political threat, heads the European Commission.

The EU, with its beady eye on public finances, has long chanted the mantra that pension reform is crucial if Italy is to bring down its budget deficit and debt mountain.

Italy is predicting a deficit to GDP ratio of 2.3 per cent this year but the EU, along with the organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, has warned it could top the three per cent ceiling in 2004, as France and Germany have already done.

"It's clear something has to give - and if it's not pension reform, that means cutting back on spending or renouncing election pledges and raising taxes," said Giuliano Cazzola of the National Pensions Institute (INPS).

"The situation in France and Germany helped Italy out in 2002 but it's not virtuous company they are keeping," he added.

The euro zone's top three economies are all facing pension problems, as well as budget woes.

In France tempers are fraying fast with unions planning a national one-day strike to protest against attempts to overhaul the pensions system. And the Italian government will be hoping to avoid a similar fate.

Labour Minister Roberto Maroni will start yet another round of talks this month with the unions, who are staunchly protecting their ageing membership.

But most analysts say Italy's number one priority should be raising the real retirement age.

EU statistics show 55 to 59-year-olds made up just over six per cent of the Italian male workforce in 2002, less than in Germany, France and Britain.

Although Italy did reform pensions in 1995, moving from salary-based benefits to a contributions system, those with more than 18 years work under their belt were exempt.

And so while the official male retirement age is 65, many still have anzianità pensions, which pay out from the age of 57 if you have worked for 35 years.

"This means the average real retirement age is effectively between 58 and 59, and we need to see it get to at least 63 before 2010," said Mr Cazzola.

"An entire generation escaped. It won't be until 2030 that we really see the effects and that's too long. They should basically extend the reform to everybody," Mr Galasso said.

Also at issue are incentives to encourage people to work longer, how much new employees should contribute to state funds, and a drive to promote private pension funds.

Some commentators jest that they will long have gone grey before serious reform arrives, others compare following the Italian pension saga to waiting for Godot.

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