Tuesday's mid-term congressional elections in the United States will be closely watched by international observers, as both the Democrats could end up controlling both the Senate and the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994.
Congressional elections are held every two years in the United States. All the seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as well as 33 of the 100 Senate seats. There are also elections for Governors in 36 states. In the Senate the Republicans hold 55 seats, the Democrats 44 and there is one independent. In the House, Republicans have 231 seats and the Democrats have 201. The Democrats need to take 15 seats from the Republicans to obtain a majority in the House and they need a net gain of six seats in the Senate to win control of that chamber.
The main factors working against the Republicans are the war in Iraq and alleged corruption and sex scandals among certain Republican politicians, as well as the usual local issues. The economy - where I think President Bush has a mixed record - is also an issue but will probably not be a determining one, at least not as much as the Iraqi war and the scandals.
Foreign policy is not often a key element in American elections but in this case the Iraqi war is certainly a very important factor. The war cannot be described as a foreign policy issue any more - it is now very much a domestic issue with the death toll among American soldiers in the war continuously rising. The disaster in Iraq has in fact completely dominated the country's political agenda.
It is not surprising, therefore, that a final New York Times/CBS poll suggests dissatisfaction over the Iraq war will be the biggest factor in deciding how Americans will vote on Tuesday. The survey suggests only 29 per cent of Americans approve of the way Mr Bush is handling the war. Nearly 70 per cent of respondents said the President did not have a plan to end the war while 80 per cent said his latest effort to rally public support added up to a change in language, not policy. Three-quarters of those polled said they expect the Democrats to reduce or end US military involvement in Iraq if they win control of Congress.
Opinion polls show that the House of Representatives is more likely to fall into the hands of the Democrats than the Senate, although this is also a possibility. This is due to the fact that unlike in the Senate, all the Congressmen in the House face re-election and also because a number of House Republicans have been involved in scandals.
When in 1994 the Republicans took control of the House they promised to "restore accountability to Congress" and "to end its cycle of scandal and disgrace". However, a number of them have been accused of wrongdoing and of failing to clean up the government and this will no doubt have an impact on voter intentions.
For example, Mark Foley, the Florida Congressman (whom we have all heard of in Malta because of his allegations against a Gozitan priest who had served in Florida), was forced to resign in September when it emerged that he sent lewd messages to teenage male interns in Congress.
Other Republicans, including House Speaker Dennis Hastert - the third most senior official in the US government - have been accused of helping to cover up Mr Foley's behaviour. Furthermore, the Chicago Tribune has claimed that Mr Hastert personally profited from a land sale in his home state of Illinois after inserting a clause into a highways bill which funded a public highway three miles from his property.
Other Republican congressmen who have been embroiled in scandals include Tom Delay, the party's former majority leader, who resigned his seat in April after he was indicted in Texas on money laundering charges related to campaign financing; Randy Cunningham, who resigned last year after he admitted taking $2.4 million in bribes related to defence contracts; Bob Ney, who last month pleaded guilty to criminal corruption charges that could send him to jail for 10 years; and Curt Weldon, who is under investigation into whether he inappropriately used his influence to direct clients, including a Russian energy company, to his daughter's lobbying firm.
Such accusations are clearly very bad news for the Republicans and this has been acknowledged by senior party figures. Senator John McCain, the highly respected Republican who has a good chance of being his party's presidential candidate in 2008, told an audience in South Dakota last week: "We need to reform ethics. We need to reform lobbying. We need to restore the faith and confidence of the American people in our institutions of government."
The economy is also a factor in this election but it is nowhere near as important as Iraq and the corruption and other accusations. On the whole the Republicans have a mixed record on the economy, although overspending and the increased deficit - compared to the Clinton administration's (1993-2000) excellent economic record - are matters for concern.
Having said that, one has to acknowledge that the US economy is still very strong, the deficit has been reduced from 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2004 to 1.9 per cent last month and increased spending on homeland security was probably justified. Some of Mr Bush's tax cuts of 2001-2004 no doubt contributed to the country's deficit and most economists have mixed feelings about these cuts.
Should the Democrats take control of Congress Mr Bush is likely to be a lame duck president in his last two years in office. The most interesting aspect of the election will be whether the Democrats will be able to improve the situation in Iraq, clearly the Bush administration's greatest failure.