‘Suddenly the game has changed’

Michael Falzon
Former Nationalist Cabinet minister

“The electoral tussle is not about who manages the country best, as one would have comfortably predicted some time ago. Suddenly the game has changed – to the extent that the Prime Minister felt he had to call a very early election, at least nine months before it was due.

The crowds who cheered wildly on being told of this decision during Labour’s mass meeting last Monday should have first stopped and asked: why? The reply is no kudos for the Prime Minister.

What was a predictable walk-over for Labour, albeit not as massive as in 2013, has become a closely run race with the PN having an outside chance of winning. Suddenly, the relative abilities of Simon Busuttil and Joseph Muscat as managers of our successful little nation State is no longer the issue.

Indeed there is still time for the gap between the two parties to be narrowed even more.

On one side we have Labour touting the undoubted economic success that Malta has enjoyed during the last four years, while on the other side the issue is one of stopping the rot.

Allegations of corruption have always figured in Maltese elections and the electorate was becoming immune to them. This time around, however, the claims have hit the very nerve centre of the Muscat administration and not just some government cronies abusing their position.

Some would say that Muscat is using the election to be declared ‘innocent’ by the electorate rather than by due process at law. Does the crowd always holler in favour of Barabbas rather than for what is right and proper?

There are no issues except this one: is economic success more important than ethical and moral leadership?

It’s a tough one for a nation used to closing one eye, or even both.”

‘An election like no other’

Laurence Grech
Former editor of The Sunday Times of Malta

“The main issue in the snap general election called by the Prime Minister for June 3 is undoubtedly the charge of massive corruption and graft at the highest levels of government.

This is unprecedented for Malta, as although allegations of corruption often featured in past electoral campaigns, they never completely overshadowed the main issues, or involved the head of government himself, as in this case.

By calling the general election a full year ahead of schedule, it is Joseph Muscat himself who has acknowledged that the overriding issue currently preoccupying most people is corruption, specifically allegations made against him and his spouse – which they have strenuously denied – and the two men closest to him, his chief of staff, Keith Schembri, and his Minister without Portfolio Konrad Mizzi.

Had this been a normal general election, the economy would probably have figured most prominently in the campaign. And this is what Labour is trying to do this time, pointing at the country’s robust economic growth which is the result of the solid foundations laid by previous Nationalist administrations.

The secret companies and accounts and the millions in dirty money allegedly flowing into them have been the climax to a series of scandals which have rocked this administration, from the Café Premier acquisition to the granting of a vast area of virgin land to the so-called American University.

That this election, and the issue dominating it, is coming even before the conclusion of Malta’s six-month term as president of the Council of the European Union, is indeed most unfortunate, as is the fallout on the island’s financial services sector which has been so patiently built up over the years.”

‘It’s 2013 in obverse’

Dominic Fenech
Professor of History, Dean of the Faculty of Arts at University of Malta

“The battle lines were drawn, I’d say, about two years ago, ever since the PN, still reeling from the shock of 2013, calculated that it might, just might, recover electability by making governanza their platform. The PL’s centrepiece is obviously the economy, on which it scores high. So the way it looks is that there are two mostly parallel platforms. Like parallel lines, they do not meet, and interact only to exchange fire.

It’s 2013 in obverse, when Nationalists harped on economic recovery and warned that Labour would crash the economy, while Labour targeted Nationalist unaccountability and corruption. There are two important qualifications however: the chink in the PN’s performance was the excessive deficit, which Labour has since turned into a surplus. And on governance Labour’s charges gained traction once solid proof of corruption in oil purchasing emerged.

Since the PN is now downplaying everything else and putting all its eggs in the corruption basket, much will turn on its ability to produce hard proof, if any exists, that implicates the Prime Minister directly. Without evidence the claim can even boomerang. From the moment his wife was named as the beneficiary of a secret Panama company, the ante was upped so much that all related stories faded. Unless supported, the allegation will be sounding tedious after a month of unremitting repetition. 

Then of course many material promises have already started to be made, targeting specific voter groups. There’s nothing new in this, but Labour has the advantage that it has a proven ability to fund its promises. Accusations of endangering financial stability will be traded.

In logistic terms the level of party organisation is an important factor. Here the PL leads because the party machine has been kept oiled throughout, while the PN is still putting the pieces together and has barely patched up rifts that were making the headlines only weeks ago.

Finally, the personality of party leaders will, as always, be key in the campaign, only more so this time because the contest between leaders has never been more personal.”

‘Emotional attachment over rational thought’

Joe Friggieri
Professor of Philosophy, University of Malta

“The two main factors that are likely to determine the result of the forthcoming election are the healthy state of the economy on one hand and the issue of good governance on the other.

Unemployment is at an all-time low, and the introduction of a number of new social services, like the provision of free childcare for working mothers, count on one side. The Panama Papers story, with its various subplots, weighs heavily on the other. The two things are not given equal importance by either side of the political divide. 

As in previous elections, loyalty to the party will still play a crucial role in determining the result. No matter what the arguments are on both sides, emotional attachment tends to override rational thought. This happens all the time, but especially in the run-up to elections, when the idea of your favourite team winning or losing is more likely to influence your decision than consideration of other factors. 

So this time too, it will be those who have been variously described as switchers or floaters, or who tend to be classified in opinion polls as ‘undecided’, who will tip the balance one way or the other. There’s an old saying that Oppositions don’t win elections, only governments lose them. This is only an aphorism, but if one chooses to believe it, then the question one should ask is not whether the Opposition has worked hard enough to deserve victory, but whether the government has done enough to deserve defeat.

If the polls are anything to go by, one should expect a good number of switchers to switch back. It remains to be seen how many will.”