In its editorial of March 1, the Guardian (UK) notes that “[t]he international community has been compromised by the revolution sweeping the Arab world”. This should provide a sobering undertone to the impending endgame in Libya.

In what has been described by the UN website as “swift, decisive action”, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 1970 (2011), imposing tough measures on the Libyan regime in the wake of its domestic crackdown on protesters. In addition to arms embargoes, asset freezes and travel bans, this resolution refers the situation in Libya since February 15 to the International Criminal Court (ICC), the second time such a referral has been made.

A crucial difference, however, between the two referrals is that, whereas in resolution 1593 (2005) the Security Council determined that “the situation in Sudan continues to constitute a threat to international peace and security”, no such determination was made, and, arguably, could be made in the case of Libya, on the basis of events since February 15. As the editorial points out, “Libyan troops are not alone in firing on unarmed demonstrators”. So, why Libya? On several occasions in the past, Muammar Gaddafi complained that Libya had not been “rewarded” for renouncing WMDs in 2003. The summary manner in which the Libyan regime is today being dealt with may certainly make other leaders in the region contemplate seriously the consequences of foregoing such weapons.

Thus, today’s “swift, decisive action” may have pronounced, geopolitical repercussions for the region.