Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich claimed a slender victory in a presidential poll today that could tilt the ex-Soviet state back towards Moscow, but bitter rival Yulia Tymoshenko had yet to concede defeat.
With just over 95 percent of votes counted, election officials gave Yanukovich a margin of a mere 2.09 percentage points over Prime Minister Tymoshenko.
But a Central Election Commission official told Reuters that Yanukovich remained the winner of Sunday's vote. With votes still co come from his strongholds in the south and east, the gap with Tymoshenko was expected to increase rather than shrink, Commission member Mykhailo Okhendovskiy said.
Analysts said the slender gap might encourage Tymoshenko, who earlier warned Yanukovich against celebrating victory prematurely, to press for advantage or contest the result.
"The situation is developing in favour of going to the courts and some sort of deal," said Viktor Nebozhenko of the Ukrainian Barometre centre. "It is not really clear who has won. The forces are more or less equal."
"If it is 3 percentage points or less it is contestable. The temptation will be there for her to make a challenge," said Andrew Wilson, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Tymoshenko's camp, alleging fraud, offered a "parallel count" late on Sunday that saw her edging out her rival. The margin in the official results made it likely that Tymoshenko would mount a legal challenge, prolonging the uncertainty.
Analysts, however, added that she may wait to hear the verdict of international monitors, led by the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe, on the election before taking a course of action. They were due to deliver their findings later on Monday.
The official results signalled a comeback for the rough-hewn Yanukovich, tagged as Moscow's stooge five years ago when street protests overturned results that initially gave him victory in an election tainted by fraud.
FRUSTRATION AND DISPPOINTMENT
A Yanukovich victory could see the country of 46 million people shift back towards former Soviet master Russia after five years of infighting and a sliding economy turned the euphoria of the Orange revolution into frustration and disappointment.
Both candidates pledged integration with Europe while improving ties with Moscow, but Tymoshenko is seen as more pro-Western. Yanukovich is unlikely to pursue membership of NATO, an 'Orange' goal that infuriated neighbouring Russia.
Yanukovich, 59, a beefy ex-mechanic, called on Tymoshenko, 49, to resign as prime minister. But Tymoshenko's team said in the early hours of Monday they had counted 85 percent of votes and she was leading by 0.8 of a percentage point.
Each side accused the other of fraud, but Tymoshenko stopped short of repeating a threat she made last week to call people out onto the streets if she believed the election was unfair.
If the voting pattern remains unchanged, Yanukovich would be the first president since independence in 1991 not to receive more than 50 percent of the vote, although elections in the 1990s were not always judged free and fair.
Some analysts said that given the relative weakness of his position he might seek a compromise with Tymoshenko. They did not rule out the possibility that the two camps were talking.
Under this scenario, Tymoshenko might concede defeat in exchange for remaining prime minister and living to fight for the presidency another day. Tymoshenko was the co-architect of the 2004 revolution with pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, but their relationship quickly soured.
Looking stern in front of reporters, the fiery former gas tycoon late on Sunday urged her team to "fight for every result, every document, every vote". The tone was moderate and analysts said they doubted Tymoshenko could stage a repeat of 2004.
She was scheduled to hold a news conference later on Monday.
A disputed outcome would further delay Ukraine's chances of repaying more than $100 billion of foreign debt and nursing its economy back to health after a 15 percent collapse last year.
In Russia, the source of the gas which flows through Ukraine's pipeline network to the West, the election was closely watched but state-controlled media avoided taking sides.
Ukraine's $120 billion economy has been battered by a decline in the value of vital steel and chemicals exports that has hammered the hryvnia currency, slashed budget revenues and undermined the domestic banking system.
Regardless of the outcome, political squabbling was set to continue, reflecting the country's broader divisions. Ukraine is divided almost equally between a Russian-leaning east and south and a Western-friendly centre and west.
With a Yanukovich victory, Tymoshenko can expect to be ousted as premier by a vote of no confidence in parliament. Yanukovich will then try to form a new coalition to get his own ally into the role, or call a snap parliamentary election.