Turkish Cypriots were voting today in a leadership election whose outcome could deadlock peace talks and sink Turkey's bid for European Union membership.
The election pits a dovish incumbent striving for reunification with rival Greek Cypriots against a hardline challenger seeking to bolster a breakaway state.
Polls were opening for 164,000 voters in the small northern enclave at 8am local time (6am BST) and will close at 6pm (4pm BST), with results expected later tonight.
Opinion polls showed right-winger Dervis Eroglu set to oust left-wing Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat. If that happens, it could end the slow-moving peace talks between Mr Talat and the island's Greek Cypriot president Dimitris Christofias.
The island's division is already hampering Turkey's EU drive, which could be scuppered if the peace talks are called off.
Since Turkey is a Nato member, such a move also could cripple closer EU-Nato co-operation and increase regional instability.
Cyprus was split in 1974 when Turkey invaded after a coup by supporters of union with Greece. Turkish Cypriots declared the independent Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in 1983, but only Turkey recognises it and maintains 35,000 troops there.
Cyprus joined the EU divided in 2004 with only the internationally-recognised south's 800,000 Greek Cypriots enjoying membership benefits.
Mr Eroglu's resurgence is mainly due to public disillusionment with Mr Talat who many Turkish Cypriots criticise for not delivering on a promise of a swift deal after opening negotiations with Mr Christofias 19 months ago.
"I believe, for the Turkish Cypriot people, Mr. Eroglu will win. We trust him, I don't trust Talat," said resident Mustafa Ozhan, 43.
Talat supporter Zeki Kayalp said an Eroglu win would be disastrous for the peace talks.
"We believe that (Talat) is the only one who is going to sort out a Cyprus solution," the 43-year-old shipping agency official said.
Although Mr Eroglu insists he would continue peace talks, he is at odds with an agreement between Mr Talat and Mr Christofias about a future partnership under a federal roof.
"I hope I will win these elections (with) over 55% and after the election, I'll try to be with Mr Christofias (at) the same table," Eroglu said after casting his ballot in the eastern coastal town of Famagusta.
Talat said election laws bar him from commenting on the election result.
Eroglu's resurgence is mainly due to public disillusionment with Talat whom many Turkish Cypriots fault for not delivering on a promise of a swift deal after opening negotiations with Christofias 19 months ago.
"Dervis Eroglu will win because he is the one who will support our rights as Turkish Cypriots. The talks will continue and we will fight for our rights," said retired policeman Mehmet Salih today.
Although Eroglu insists he would continue peace talks, he's at odds with an agreement between Talat and Christofias envisioning a future partnership under a federal roof.
The 72-year-old veteran insists on separate sovereignty for the breakaway north, something that Christofias warned he wouldn't accept.
"I voted for Mehmet Ali Talat because I believe in peace and unity in Cyprus," said first-time voter Baris Unel. "The vision of Mr Eroglu, you can see he doesn't want peace, he doesn't have a vision for a solution," said the 18-year-old student.