The data on tourist arrivals for the month of March 2002 have been published, showing just a marginal increase over the same month last year. Some rushed to claim that the drop in tourist arrivals resulting from the September 11, 2001, events are being reversed. This drop has been noticeable in the months between October 2001 and February 2002 and therefore it had appeared that March of this year signalled a reversal of that trend. The data shows nothing of the sort, but just the same indicates some positive trends.

Let us eliminate the March issue straightaway. It is a known fact that tourist arrivals peak during spring in time for Easter. Last year, Easter was in the middle of April while this year it was at the beginning of the month, with the bulk of arrivals happening during March.

Taken from this perspective, March this year should have represented the Easter peak, while last year the Easter peak was in April and, as such, in seasonality terms, March this year cannot be compared to March last year.

However, the problems that we had last year were not restricted to the aftermath of the September 11 events. They went a bit deeper than that as we were experiencing a downturn in tourist arrivals even before September 2001.

Again, this could have been the result of events that are outside our control, given the international economic slowdown and the subsequent dampening of consumer demand in several countries that make up the bulk of our tourist markets.

Moreover, last year we had the drop in a major market resulting from the downsizing of operations of a leading tour operator - again, an event that was beyond our control. On the other hand, we cannot dismiss any downturn in tourist arrivals as events beyond control.

Whereas the impact on tourism of the aftermath of the September 2001 events needs to be isolated because of the extraordinary nature and the size of that impact, the downturn in tourist arrivals in 2001 and 2002 resulting from other events should be viewed as an issue that needs to be addressed.

Irrespective of whether we had to face the downsizing of operations of a leading operator, or whether there was an international economic slowdown, we expect ourselves to maintain not just our position in the market but to improve it. If there is a slowdown in one market, one is expected to make up for it through increases in arrivals from other markets or other customer segments.

In this regard, two positive trends emerge; hence my earlier comment. The first one is the number of arrivals of cruise passengers. This reached 12,111 for the first three months of this year, compared to 10,097 for the corresponding period last year, an increase of something like 20 per cent.

Compared to 2000 and 1999, the increase is even more dramatic. The increase over 2000 was of 125 per cent while the increase over 1999 was of 360 per cent.

A second positive trend is the average length of stay. A longer stay implies a greater spend by the tourist. Seasonality and external events are also less important in this regard. Data for the first three months of this year show that this has increased during all three months, albeit marginally.

In January it went up from 11.4 days to 11.5 days, in February from 8.8 days to nine days, while in March it increased from 8.5 days to 8.6 days. One might claim that these are just little mercies for which we should thank our lucky stars. They may be, but is there a smoke without a fire?

In addition, the major issue that needs to be assessed is whether the underlying trend in tourist arrivals after isolating the impact of the September 11 events is a positive one or not. It is indeed difficult to quantify the drop in tourist arrivals as a result of this extraordinary event because one is not dealing with a static situation but with a very dynamic one.

An assessment that has been done estimates this drop to be around nine to 9.5 per cent. Even this drop is expected to start being dissipated as time passes.

On the other hand, the data for the first quarter of 2002 shows a drop of five per cent when compared to the same period last year. The indications for March and April together (thus eliminating the Easter issue) are that of a drop of around eight per cent to nine per cent.

This implies that the underlying trend in tourist arrivals is one of stability, and we are just left with the decrease resulting from last September's events. The data available is admittedly fairly limited and this trend needs to be confirmed in the coming months.

What this assessment highlights is that we cannot take tourist arrivals for granted and that we should always be seeking to understand what is happening in the market. It also highlights the fact that we cannot just be happy with crude numbers but we should be finding out the story that lies behind those numbers.