It is probably best to start this commentary with the statement made by an analyst in the last few days, that whatever one says or writes today in relation to the Greek sovereign debt issue may well be totally off the mark by tomorrow. This is because every day has brought its surprises, new positions being taken by both the creditors and the Greek government.

This has been so evident from the reactions on the financial markets. The losses experienced on June 29 (the first day the markets opened after the announcement of the referendum) were partially recouped the following day, because of new developments.

What is known for certain is that on, midnight of June 30, Greece defaulted on its loan of over one billion euros from the International Monetary Fund. In spite of this default, it will still be some more time before Greece is declared bankrupt. Capital controls have been introduced in the country, to avoid adding further pressure on the Greek banking system. However, capital controls that limit people’s ability to withdraw and move money out of the country are not a sign of a healthy currency union

The Greek government has called a referendum to ask the electorate whether or not to accept the proposals of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund submitted on June 26. It called this referendum after that the Finance Minister had walked out of the meeting of the eurozone finance ministers.

A large part of the blame for what has happened lies with the Greek Prime Minister and his Finance Minister

Since then Alexis Tsipras, the Greek Prime Minister, has said that his government could possibly accept these proposals if certain conditions were changed. So we go back to the point that, what is stated as fact today, may well turn out to be far away from reality tomorrow.

It has also been mooted that the Sunday referendum may be cancelled since opinion polls are showing that the referendum will not produce the result that the government wishes, that is a rejection of the proposals of 26 June. The German Chancellor has stated that at this point one should wait for the result of the referendum before any decision is taken.

With the knowledge of hindsight, one can now state that a large part of the blame for what has happened lies with the Greek Prime Minister and his Finance Minister. They seemed to have never taken into serious consideration the possibility of implementing structural reforms that would have given more space to the productive economy and made Greek businesses capable to compete in the international markets. They actually reversed some of the reforms started by the previous government such as the privatisation of certain state controlled entities.

Angela Merkel has stated that, if the euro fails, the whole of the EU fails. This is not only an economic argument. Today it is possible to minimise the negative impact of Greece leaving the eurozone. However, the Greek exit from the eurozone would represent an important stress test also for the European social model, built on solidarity and subsidiarity.

Where does Malta stand in all this? We have undertaken fully our responsibility towards Greece and its people in the spirit of solidarity, through the odd €180 million lent by the Maltese government, with the approval of Parliament.

That money did not go to pay back any Maltese financial institution that was exposed to Greek sovereign debt; as happened with other countries. This is why one appreciates fully the stand taken by the Prime Minister, Joseph Muscat, that he will want to make sure that, in any eventual decision taken on Greece by the EU, Malta’s interests are fully safeguarded.

So the story continues to unfold and we have to wait for a few more days before any conclusions can be drawn. In fact it is very difficult to state when the last word on this saga would be written.