If Libya’s UN-backed government forces its way into the capital Tripoli, the country risks descending further into chaos, Foreign Minister George Vella has cautioned.

Tripoli is run by a broad alliance of Islamist militias, some of which are steadfastly opposed to the government of national accord brokered by the UN in December last year.

“Malta supports the national unity government but I have my concerns about alienating the Tripoli administration, which could risk pushing certain elements into the hands of Daesh,” he told The Sunday Times of Malta yesterday, using the Arabic acronym for Islamic State.

IS controls the coastal city of Sirte and according to the UN has a force of 3,000 fighters although reports say the US intelligence puts the figure at 6,000. The terrorist group has been pushing outward to the east towards Libya’s oil crucible and west towards the city of Misurata but has so far been held back by the forces loyal to the rival governments in Tripoli and Tobruk.

Dr Vella fears that forced entry into Tripoli could lead to fierce clashes between the different militia groups that control the capital. “It would be like lighting a matchstick… it is naïve to believe that the administration run by [Khalifa] Ghwell would simply move sideways and allow the unity government to take control.”

But Dr Vella also raised concerns about the legality of the unity government, which has so far failed to get parliamentary backing from the internationally-recognised administration in Tobruk.

The unity government made up of a presidency council headed by prime minister-designate Faiez Serraj was agreed last December but deadlines for its formal installation have kept slipping since January.

It would be like lighting a matchstick… it is naïve to believe that the administration run by [Khalifa] Ghwell would simply move sideways and allow the unity government to take control

A vote scheduled to take place in the House of Representatives in Tobruk to approve the Serraj government has been postponed countless times.

It is understood that EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has asked for a report on the legal basis underpinning the unity government if it fails to gain support from the Tobruk administration.

Last week the Libya Herald reported that the unity government would move to Tripoli from Tunisia in a matter of days.

Last Friday the Ghwell government announced a state of emergency in Tripoli after reports circulated that some members of the UN-backed presidency council arrived in the capital to pave the way for Serraj.

But Dr Vella sounded a less dramatic note on the latest news, adding that some members of the presidency council were residents of Tripoli and the Ghwell administration had never barred them from entering the city.

The problem, he added, would come about if the unity government attempted to take control.

“I hope I am wrong and [Khalifa] Ghwell will simply move aside realising he does not enjoy support but I fear this will not be the case,” Dr Vella said.

The EU has been talking of imposing sanctions on uncooperative individuals from the Tripoli administration but Dr Vella is sceptical about whether this will work unless the UN gets involved.

EU-imposed sanctions will not be adhered to by countries like Turkey and the Persian Gulf states, which could render the exercise futile.

“The situation is tense and very complicated,” Dr Vella said.

Earlier this month, UN special envoy to Libya Martin Kobler warned that the humanitarian and security situation in Libya was deteriorating.

Libya’s political forces had to move ahead on the UN plan or risk division and collapse, he told the Security Council.

The Tripoli administration is made up of elected deputies who broke away from the internationally-recognised Parliament in 2014, setting up their own council and government. It is backed by various militias, including those from Misurata.

In the east the Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa Haftar, who is allied to Tobruk, is fighting Islamists in Benghazi, drawing no distinction between radicals and moderates.

Countless other armed groups control various parts of the country, which has descended into lawlessness. Armed bandits have resorted to fuel smuggling, abductions and migration to raise money.

The French Foreign Minister last week said there were around 800,000 migrants wanting to make the perilous journey across the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe.

Last June the EU started patrolling international waters off Libya to curb the criminal networks behind the migration crisis.

Only last week, British Prime Minister David Cameron said he wanted UK naval forces to move closer to Libyan shores to attack smuggler networks. However, to do so, the EU would need a UN mandate or be invited by the Libyan government.

Poverty check

Libya has a population of six million and the UN estimates that 2.4million Libyans are in need of some form of humanitarian assistance.

The UN estimates that more than 40 per cent of the health facilities in Libya are not functioning and over one million children under the age of five are at risk of being affected by a vaccine shortage.

Main divisions

GNC: General National Congress, breakaway Islamist factions that took power in 2014. Government headed by Khalifa Ghwell. Endorse militias part of Libya Dawn.

HOR: House of Representatives, internationally-recognised, forced out of Tripoli in 2014. Government headed by Abdullah al-Thinni. Endorse Operation Dignity.

GNA: Government of National Accord, the UN-brokered unity government headed by Faiez Serraj. Planning to move to Tripoli, from Tunisia.

ISIS: Islamic State based in Sirte and Derna.

BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council made up of Islamist groups, including UN-listed terrorist organisation Al-Nusra, operating in Benghazi and at war with LNA.

Clashes

Benghazi: Benghazi Revolutionaries vs Libyan National Army (LNA)

Zliten: IS car bomb kills 60 in January 2016

Ras Lanuf: IS v LNA

Tripoli: Internal clashes between militias supporting GNC

Sabratha: US airstrikes against IS training camp in February 2016.

Main fighting forces

LNA: Libyan National Army under the command of General Khalifa Haftar allied to Tobruk. He embarked on Operation Dignity to rid country of Islamists in 2014.

Libya Dawn: Militia brigades allied to Tripoli.

ISIS: UN estimates IS has 3,000, mostly foreign fighters but USintelligence puts the figure at 6,000.