Are terror attacks and threats hijacking Christmas travel plans? Stanley Borg takes a look at tourism’s resilience in the wake of the Paris massacres.

Like Venice, Prague and Rome, Paris knows that it is beautiful. And every December, it puts on its Cinderella gown and, with a tap of its magic wand, turns Christmas into a fairy tale.

Like an ill-fitting dress, terrorism doesn’t suit Paris. Terrorism doesn’t suit any city in the world. But with Paris, the images of broken bones, bloodied bodies and interrupted lives became distorted reflections of the Paris we love.

And instead of postcards showing the latticed beauty of Notre Dame, the little food markets huddling in cobbled ruelles, and the Pont Neuf hovering over the river Seine like a lonely lover, last November 13, we received tweets, images and updates showing bullet holes from semi-automatics, football fans being evacuated from the Stade de France, and the sound of sirens keeping one long, wakeful night.

Until that night, we only knew of the Moulin Rouge, the Eiffel Tower and the Louvre. Now, we know of Le Carillon bar, Le Petit Cambodge restaurant and the Bataclan hall.

On November 13, a series of coordinated attacks around the French capital left 130 dead and hundreds wounded. These attacks came in the wake of the shooting at the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo on January 7, which brought bloodshed to the French capital and left 11 people dead.

Since the Paris attacks, Europe has been on maximum alert. On November 21, the government of Belgium imposed a security lockdown on Brussels, including the closure of public transport, schools and shops.

And just last week, Swiss police increased the alert level in Geneva, subsequently arresting two men who were driving in a car containing traces of explosives.

Terrorism kills people. But not only that – another victim is travel. On November 14, shares in French travel firms such as Accor SA and Air France took massive hits. Tourist attractions became no-go zones and people travelling to Paris cancelled their flights.

For a country like France, where tourism makes up around eight per cent of the economy and where 10 per cent of total employment is related to tourism, the effects could be severe.

Paris, especially, is key to the tourism industry in France, as it is the star attraction. According to the Visitors Bureau, in 2014, 22 million tourists stayed in Paris, out of a total of 84 million tourists who visit France.

Terrorism inspires the kind of fear that forces people to change their behaviour. In the case of tourists, this means that they either leave the host country or reconsider their plans.

When, on June 26 of this year, an Islamist gunman killed 38 tourists at the Port El Kantaoui resort in Tunisia, by the following Monday, around 3,500 British tourists had packed their bags and left: a major blow to a country where, in 2014, tourism contributed 15.1 per cent of the GDP.

Cancellations and low bookings could be detrimental to countries where tourism is a major economic player

Egypt is suffering the same fate. The political unrest which has been largely ongoing since 2013 has, according to the UK Office for National Statistics, fuelled an 18.5 per cent decline in visitor numbers from the UK.

Moscow’s ban on all flights to Egypt following the terrorist act that brought down a Metrojet airliner over the Sinai desert on October 31, killing all 224 on board, dealt a further blow to Egypt’s tourism industry.

Cancellations and low bookings could be detrimental to countries where tourism is a major economic player, but also to travel agencies, for whom Christmas is usually a busy period.

“Soon after the Paris attacks, people were afraid to travel,” Conrad Degiorgio, E. Travel Solutions manager, says. “However, we did not suffer any cancellations and people are going ahead with their travel plans.”

“Currently, people are hesitant to travel within Europe,” Lilly Muscat, Royal Travel Limited managing director, says. “However, since our market is mainly outside Europe, this has not affected us. That said, personally I think that now is the time to travel since in response to the high level of threat, security measures are also at their highest levels.”

Some destinations are considered safer than others.

“Since we specialise in skiing and mountain destinations, we were not affected at all and bookings for the Christmas and new year period are at last year’s levels,” Stellina Galea, YTC Travel director, says.

“Mountains are considered to be very safe destinations and they encapsulate that getting-away-from-it-all feeling. In fact, I have just returned from Livigno, and I can vouch that there, life is going on as usual.”

Despite the initial misgivings that tourists have following terrorist attacks, statistics show that the effects of terrorism on tourism might not be that significant in the long term. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, it takes tourism 13 months to recover from a terrorist attack.

In comparison, tourism takes 21 months to offset the effects of disease and 24 months those of an environmental disaster.

The trade group says that after the train bombings in Madrid in 2004, tourist arrivals regained their pre-bombing levels in weeks, while the London bombings in 2005 had no significant impact on tourist arrivals in the UK.

“People are being cautious but they are still travelling,” says Colin Aquilina, ROCS Group head of finance and business develop-ment. “We saw this soon after the Charlie Hebdo attacks on January 7 – people were initially hesitant to travel but then normal travelling patterns resumed.

“In the aftermath of the November 13 attacks in Paris, we suffered cancellations and gave refunds on particular trips. Some airlines were flexible and assisted us, but others did not.

“That said, right now, it is very safe to travel because security measures are very tight.

“We saw this recently at the Vatican for Pope Francis’s inauguration of the Jubilee Year of Mercy. Security measures were unprecedented and people still flocked to Saint Peter’s Square.

“At Disneyland Paris, security has been tightened and it is very safe. The same goes for Dubai and Thailand, which are favourite travel destinations.”

So what brings tourists back to a country which has suffered a terrorist attack?

First of all, a cut in prices is always an attractive factor. Also, in certain cases the attractiveness of a destination outweighs the level of risk.

Bali, considered a tourist paradise, suffered a decline in arrivals after the 2005 bombings there. However, in 2007, it welcomed more than 1.6 million tourists, its highest in eight years.

Moreover, people tend to forget. Or rather, people will, after an initial overreaction, reassess the level of threat which, despite the numerous attacks in 2015, is still considered low.

“What happened in Paris is tragic,” Mr Aquilina adds. “However, in my opinion, one of the aims of terrorism is to scare people and force them to change their behaviour, including travelling.

“So in that sense, a cancelled holiday is a small victory for terrorists.”