The fanatical nature of Islamist separatism in the North Caucasus means Russia may have to live with terrorist attacks for the fore-seeable future, experts have warned.
After a lull in the mid part of the last decade, suicide bombings have seen an upswing since 2009, rubbishing claims in Moscow that the insurgency had been suppressed.
Militants have threatened on numerous occasions to take the fight into the Russian heartland. The latest atrocity at Moscow’s main international airport has the added bonus for them that it globalises the issue, with Westerners caught up in the killing.
It comes on the back of increased activity by Chechen terrorists. In October militants attempted to blow up the Parliament in Grozny, murdering six people in the process.
And last March, so-called Black Widows – the wives of dead Chechen rebels – killed 38 people in a double attack on Moscow’s underground system.There has also been an upsurge in sporadic shootings between separatists and police in the North Caucasus, experts have noted.
Paul Wilkinson, emeritus professor of international relations and chairman of the advisory board of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St Andrews, believes the latest attack bears the hallmarks of Islamic militants.
He said: “Rebels from the North Caucasus are the most likely contenders bearing in mind previous attacks.
“If it is a Chechen attack, it does follow a worsening situation. The militants who are very anti-Russian Federation feel resentful of the leader imposed on them and are very angry about the way they have been forced into accepting Moscow’s dominance.
“And they have threatened that they will carry out attacks in Moscow.
“In Dagestan and Ingushetia, the rebels are fanatical in their belief and there has been spasmodic shooting between them and Russian forces.
“It is separatism that is intensified by their belief that they are protecting their own version of Islam.”
Prof. Wilkinson said the insurgency in the North Caucasus will prove difficult for Russia to resolve.
He said: “These are festering situations which are going to be a problem for the Russian government for some time to come.
“Relations have been worsening over recent years and this fanaticism does give rise to attacks not only in the North Caucasus but in other areas including Moscow.”
In the long term, Russia may be forced to hand over further autonomy if it is to quieten the insurgency.
But the terrorism expert said such a prospect was still “some way off”. He said: “There is no immediate solution on the horizon. It is really a question of trying to deal with moderate political forces in these areas.If you can find people to speak to and give them a political incentive you can potentially isolate the extremists. But this is a very long way ahead.”
Reactions
Vatican
Pope Benedict XVI condemned the explosions as a “grave act of violence”. The Pope expressed his “profound sadness and strong reprobation for the grave act of violence,” in an open letter to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Pope Benedict said he also offered “spiritual support and condolences to the relatives of the victims” and would not forget the wounded in his prayers.
United States
US President Barack Obama slamming the “outrageous” attack and the UN chief saying he was “appalled”.
“I strongly condemn this outrageous” act, Mr Obama said, quoted by White House spokesman Robert Gibbs. “Any assistance that the government of Russia needs or wants, we certainly stand ready to help,” Mr Gibbs added.
United Nations
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said he was “appalled” by Monday’s attack, a UN spokesman said.
“The secretary general is appalled by the deadly bombing... which has reportedly killed dozens of people,” said spokesman Farhan Haq. “The secretary general condemns this deplorable and unjustifiable act of violence against innocents.”
France and Germany
France and Germany also blasted the attack as “cowardly”. “The President of the republic assures the authorities of the Russian Federation of the entire solidarity of France in the face of this barbaric and cowardly terrorist act,” President Nicolas Sarkozy’s office said.
“I learned with dismay and disgust that many people had died in a cowardly attack on Moscow’s Domodedovo airport, and that many more were injured,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a letter of condolence.
Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for concerted global condemnation, saying: “Terrorism is international, and the reaction must be international. We will unite our forces. The terrorists will not make us give in, we will beat them and ensure their conspiracies fail.”
Australia
Prime Minister Julia Gillard described the blast in the packed arrivals hall of Domodedovo airport as a “brutal attack” and an “appalling and indiscriminate act of violence” that was likely to have affected many nations.
“The use of violence against innocent people must never be tolerated and we condemn those responsible for this horrible act,” Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said.
European Union
President Herman Van Rompuy expressed outrage and called for Russia to “punish” the perpetrators. “I am outraged by this criminal act and I call for those behind the suicide bomb to be tracked down and punished,” Mr Van Rompuy said in a statement, adding he had sent Russian President Dmitry Medvedev “a message of solidarity from the EU”.
Nato
Chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen also expressed the Western alliance’s “solidarity” with Russia – on the eve of high-level talks in Brussels between Nato and Russian officials on respective anti-missile defence shield plans. “We are in this fight together,” the defence organisation’s secretary general said in a statement. A “shocked” Rasmussen underlined: “This is a common threat that we have to face united. Nato expresses its solidarity with the Russian people and government.”
Spain
The Spanish government slammed the attack as a “vile terrorist act,” with the foreign ministry saying in a statement: “Spain reiterates its solidarity with Russia and the commitment to continue their close cooperation in the fight against terrorism.”
Lithuanian
Foreign Minister Audronius Azubalis, as current chair of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said: “There can be no justification for a brutal attack on innocent civilians. I offer my support to the Russian people and government at this difficult time.”