With polls showing a good chance of a Brexit after Thursday’s EU referendum, Anthony Manduca asked three experts how the UK leaving the European Union would affect Britain, the EU and Malta.
‘Daydreaming towards disaster’
Tonio Borg
Former European Commissioner
“The exit of the UK from the EU will be a blow for the EU but perhaps even more so for the UK. Some have described the possible decision to leave as daydreaming towards disaster.
“Having spent the current week in the UK, the ‘Leave’ campaign was dominated by mainly emotional arguments, the idea that in this globalised world, Britain should retrieve its sovereignty and retain complete freedom of action. The economic and political argument against leaving is dwarfed by the political issue that the UK would remain strong politically and economically because, even if it exits the EU, the UK role in the world is ensured by its membership of Nato and also by its permanent membership of the UN Security Council.
“I believe that should the UK leave, it would face tough post-exit negotiations with the EU; for the message will have to be sent by the EU that there is a difference between staying in and leaving; the EU would want to send a message to other member states against leaving.
“In the case of Malta, barring a special bilateral agreement which would still need EU approval from our side regarding trade and commerce, trade barriers would inevitably be created.
“The possibility of the secession of Scotland from the UK following Brexit should not be underestimated. I sincerely cannot see how the UK outside the EU and without Scotland would be stronger on the world stage.
“Besides, a decision to leave on June 23 will lead to inevitable challenges to David Cameron’s position as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. All the media in the UK are predicting a devaluation of the pound following an exit decision, between a conservative five per cent to a possible 20 per cent. Chancellor George Osborne has already announced that an austerity Budget would have to be approved, increasing taxes. This would inevitably exacerbate political division within the party in government.
“Although Mr Cameron has stated that he will exercise the option envisaged in the Treaties to start a two-year period of negotiations to regulate the exit of the UK, EU Council President Donald Tusk has said that a trade agreement could take at least seven years. This period of uncertainty will have financial and economic consequences.”
‘An imperial time warp’
Prof. Henry Frendo
Department of History, University of Malta
“In a recently commissioned opinion regarding Maltese perspectives on Brexit for the ‘History and Policy’ project run by Cambridge University and King’s College, London, I argued that in 2003 less than 54 per cent of the Maltese electorate had voted for EU membership. The Malta Labour Party, then led by Alfred Sant, feared an invasion by Sicilians, lost trade benefits, an endangered sovereignty internally and externally.
“Today Dr Sant heads the Labour delegation in the European Parliament, while a foremost anti-EU campaigner, Joseph Muscat, moved from being an MEP to becoming Prime Minister. The Leader of the Opposition, Simon Busuttil, always a Europeanist, is also a former MEP. Malta has one of the lowest unemployment rates and one of the highest economic growth rates in the EU. Admittedly immigration has been a concern but so far a fairly manageable one.
“Immigration seems to be the top priority exercising the minds or rather the emotions of many ‘Out’ voters. The more problematic immigrants in the UK however link up to the former British Empire, not to the EU, although there is a ‘same brush’ confusion here. Most European immigrants have tended to fill much needed jobs, thereby contributing to economic well-being.
“Unlike his boorish Tory predecessor, the new mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, an Asian, is pro-EU. Most of those opposing continued EU membership are Conservatives. In a recent discussion I followed one such MP, Jacob Rees-Mogg, who seemed feverishly close to the UKIP spokeswoman sitting next to him.
“A British couple I spoke to who voted ‘Out’ early, because they have a house in Malta, seemed most concerned that Britain was being populated by continental Europeans such as Romanians and Bulgarians. They had also bought the canard that Turkey, with its scores of millions of Muslims and an increasingly authoritarian regime, was about to join the EU! And finally they felt that an ‘Out’ vote would be a bargaining chip, constraining the EU to give Britain more concessions in an assumed single market of which they would continue to form part.
“I could hardly bring myself to believe that this was the Britain of John Locke and Adam Smith, Roy Jenkins or Jo Grimond. The pro-Europeans seemed to be mostly from the fringes, Irishmen and Scotsmen. I felt an uncomfortable touch of jingoism from the imperial time warp, in spite of the opening up that Britain has seen since its membership of the EU, while staying out of Schengen and retaining sterling.”
‘Partnership with Britain’
Prof. Dominic Fenech
Head of History Department, University of Malta.
“I’m hesitant to make guesses, because in history expected outcomes rarely turn out to be accurate. That said, the political impact of a Brexit on the UK, and on Europe, is likely to be a strong one.
“One of the biggest impacts will be on intra-UK relations, since it’s mostly the English who might be inclined towards Brexit. The Scots in particular don’t want to leave, and a Brexit would be their opportunity for a second bite at the independence cherry.
“When they had the referendum in 2014, Brussels campaigned against independence by warning them – so ironically – that if they seceded they’d lose their EU membership. But now should Brexit come to pass, Brussels would lay the red carpet for Scotland, should they secede from the UK.
“There could be possible implications to the future of Wales and, especially, Northern Ireland’s, future in the UK, but that’s a minefield better left unvisited.
“As for the position of the UK in international relations, Britain has always stood at the periphery of Europe, while nurturing with the US her so-called ‘special relationship’. It’s taken long for Britain to become a bit more ‘European’, in mentality as in other respects; conversely it took long for the Europeans to embrace Britain as one of their own. And it’s been a rough journey. Charles De Gaulle in the 1960s twice vetoed Britain’s EEC application, and then two years after Britain finally joined in 1973 it held its first Brexit referendum.
“It has since stayed out of major features of European integration like Schenghen and the eurozone. Even David Cameron’s will to stay had to be bought with more concessions to British exceptionalism. If Britain should leave now, the Europeans, at least the Western states, may well instinctively turn their backs on it. What happens after that is anyone’s guess, but it would be of great consequence for better or worse.
“In a way the impact on the EU could be the mirror image of the impact on Britain. We could see some erosion in European Atlanticism, of which Britain has been Europe’s anchor. We already saw Europeans split down the middle over the US-led war on Iraq in 2003. Less Britain in Europe could mean less US in Europe; maybe, who knows, more Gaullist ‘Atlantic-to-the-Urals’ talk. All speculation of course, but European geopolitics, as the Ukrainian crisis reminded us, is still shaped by residual Cold War thinking. The thing is there are so many variables that when you change one important element in the equation anything could result.
“As for the impact on Malta, it’s been said repeatedly that we stand to suffer because of our strong economic links with the UK. I’m no economist so I wouldn’t be able to say. All I can say is that there was a time when many believed we would starve to death without the British, and that was when the bulk of our economy was in their hands. We were even scared of independence. But look at us now. So, again, speculation can be idle. Then again we might be able to use our membership of the EU to strike a ‘partnership’ deal with Britain if they leave. Now that’s a thought.”