There is no doubt that the day of reckoning is getting closer. It is, up to a great extent, an appointment with destiny (to borrow a phrase used by former Prime Minister Dom Mintoff). That it is an appointment with destiny is fairly evident from the way the prime minister and the leader of the opposition are treating the topic of Malta's membership of the European Union, and from the way various constituted bodies and organisations representing particular sectors of society have declared their way of looking at the issue, irrespective of whether they have expressly told their members how they should vote.

Moreover, both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition have expressly stated their genuine concern that the economy needs a decision by the electorate as to whether we want to join the EU or not on May 1, 2004, sooner rather than later if the uncertainty that has been created is to be eliminated.

In effect, the uncertainty is the result of the importance being given to the issue, and this importance is becoming increasingly palpable. Business requires certainty to survive, thrive and invest to grow further.

However, the uncertainty is not just about whether we are going to become members of the EU or not, but also, if there is a majority against membership, what would the alternative arrangement of partnership with the EU entail.

Membership brings about certain consequences. From some, benefits may be derived, while from others, there could be costs. Opportunities shall be created, while there will also be a number of threats - all the result of the change that will take place.

What is certain in this respect is that these consequences are known and are reflected in the special arrangements that the Maltese government has entered into with the EU, like those on the free movement of workers, the purchase of property, the fishing conservation zone, and a host of others. These are guaranteed concessions that have been agreed to by the EU, with the consent of the governments of the present 15 member states.

To them one must add all the EU legislation considered beneficial for our economy and on which there was no need for negotiations, like the guaranteed free and unencumbered access to the European common market, as well as the Lm81 million that will accrue to Malta in the first three years of membership.

These are the certainties of EU membership. How we deal with them is up to us, but business can certainly not claim that it does not know what its position would be once Malta joins the EU.

If anything, the uncertainty that may be created in relation to membership of the EU is the fear of change and not knowing whether one has the ability to cope with and manage this change, but not the fear of the unknown. I guess the fear that one may not have the ability to cope with this change is natural for business.

Business lives it on a daily basis. No matter how many feasibility studies are carried out to assess an investment possibility, doubts would always persist and, in the end, it would be an act of faith in the project and self-confidence that would push the investor to invest.

Joining the EU requires business to have this act of faith in the opportunities that will be created, and the self-confidence to exploit fully those business opportunities. A great number of businesses have already faced this challenge head on, and geared themselves to exploit these opportunities by investing further.

This, up to certain extent, highlights another aspect. The fact that a number of businesses are not waiting for the outcome of the referendum to decide the direction of their business is proof of the awareness of the business sector that the status quo is just no option.

The status quo cannot continue to exist and, in this regard, there is also a great deal of certainty, so much so that businesses have risked their money because they know that no matter what the electorate decides, they cannot hope that things will remain as they are. The partnership idea will still bring with it a great deal of change.

And this is the snag of the partnership idea. It definitely does not have the certainties of membership. It will bring about change but no one has the foggiest idea as to what this change will be. We have it from the horse's mouth (from the EU itself) that the concept of partnership the EU has is not aimed at countries that do not want to become members, but as a second-best option for countries that want to become members but cannot.

So the business sector is faced with this dual level of uncertainty. At the first level, there is the uncertainty as to whether the majority of the electorate would opt for membership, and, at the second level, there is the uncertainty as to what would happen if the majority of the electorate would vote against membership.

This is why it is critical for the uncertainty to be removed as soon as possible, and why we should seek to get back to more concrete terms. And the only concrete thing that this country has are the conditions that the government has negotiated with the EU, together with all the benefits that would accrue and on which there was no need for negotiations.

Everything else is airy fairy and, therefore, only a Yes vote for membership would remove the uncertainty for the business sector.