The UK's carbon emissions are set to fall again slightly in 2010 after the recession drove dramatic declines of around 10 per cent last year, analysts said yesterday.
But the country is likely to miss its targets for cutting emissions and boosting renewable energy by the end of the decade unless the new coalition government urgently puts ambitious low-carbon policies in place.
The report from Cambridge Econometrics predicts that despite modest economic recovery this year, emissions are likely to fall by around 1.5 per cent this year due to the knock-on effects of the recession and less use of coal - which is currently fairly expensive - for energy generation.
Based on policies already in place, the analysts forecast that the UK is likely to meet its first two five-year "carbon budgets" over the coming decade, but will exceed the third, which runs from 2018 to 2022, and miss its legally-binding target to cut emissions by 34 per cent by 2020.
The report also warns that on current policies, renewables will only account for seven per cent of UK electricity supply this year, short of the 10 per cent target, and will contribute 16.5 per cent by 2020 - a little over half the previous government's goal of 30 per cent.
Cambridge Econometrics said the failure would be largely due to the fact that fossil fuels would remain an important source of electricity generation and new gas-fired power stations, rather than renewables, would help fill the gap created as older coal and nuclear plants close.
The UK will also fall far short of its EU target for 2020 to meet 15 per cent of all energy needs, including heating and transport, using renewables, the report predicted.
On the basis of policies which are in place or set out in detail, just six per cent of the UK's energy demand will come from renewables by the end of the decade, with the 15 per centr target a "daunting challenge" for the new government, the study said.
Paul Ekins, professor at the University College London, who is co-editor of the UK Energy and Environment report, said: "The outgoing government is to be applauded for setting statutory carbon targets and budgets, but the new administration will need to appreciate the difference between setting targets and having firm policies in place that help to achieve them.
"The challenge now is to ensure that the 2020 targets are met by policies that cause emissions to fall substantially in a context of economic growth."
He said the UK looked set to miss the legally-binding 34 per cent goal by around two per cent, and would become an increasingly large purchaser of emissions allowances under the EU carbon trading scheme. While the UK would meet its EU target to cut emissions by 16 per cent by 2020, and the recession would reduce energy use and emissions in the short term, the country's "current and firmly announced policies" would not be enough to bring emissions within the third carbon budget," he said.
"However, if the previous Government's aspirations are followed by the incoming administration devising concrete policies that substantially increase the share of renewable energy in heat supplied and transport by 2020 and beyond, then the official carbon budgets could be achieved," he said.
"The central forecast, therefore, implies that the incoming Government will need urgently not only to set out the details for the ambitious carbon-reduction policies it has inherited, but also move swiftly to their implementation if the UK is to achieve the statutory goal of a 34 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2020. "The achievement of the 2020 target would make it more likely that the UK will be on track for its longer-term target of an 80 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050."