Whether you loved your algebra class or hate numbers with a passion, your life is determined by numbers more frequently than you might think.

As things from watches to cars collect data, we will get priced, analysed and dissected through this data. George Orwell’s nightmare is only a few decades late.

Data must be collected, processed, summarised and interpreted. In today’s world, there is another element – reporting it. In this short article I will discuss two examples where this process flustered:  one historic and exotic, one present and very local.

Counting rats – Problem with proxies

When the French occupied Hanoi, Vietnam, one of the first projects they undertook was to install toilets and a drainage system. But this caused a problem, because drains lead to rats.

Their solution was to incentivise rat killing, by paying a nominal fee for every rat tail returned to the governors’ office. Rat tail returns skyrocketed, leading to fewer rats in the streets, entrepreneurship and happiness across Hanoi.

Except that didn’t happen.

Instead, people began raising rats in cages and just cutting their tails for the bounty and releasing them (or mating them). The number of rats increased.

Simply said, data collected can be a proxy to a problem but not the exact solution. This is something we face continuously in insurance as we use proxies, such as age, to determine riskiness.

Counting tourists – Problem with interpretation

If counting rats is a daunting task, interpreting and counting humans must be even harder.

Malta’s hotel and restaurant lobby recently published a report that noted that while the total number of tourists visiting the island increased by 2.77% in the first quarter of 2019 (year on year increase) and the total number of nights increased by 4.25%, the share of nights spent in collective accommodation (Hotels, bed and breakfasts, etc) fell by 5.54%.

The obvious conclusion is that it’s all the fault of the countless people renting out their spare bedrooms on Airbnb. And indeed, other forms of rented accommodation increased the total number of nights by almost a third.

Only the numbers look a bit strange.

Looking at the National Statistics Office (NSO), one can see that collective accommodation groups seem to have had a declining average nightly stay over the past three years, irrespective of other rented accommodation.

This is a worldwide trend of holidays becoming shorter but more frequent, especially for younger European travellers.

Tourists in hotels tend to spend about four to five fewer nights than their counterparts in privately-held accommodation: that has been true for every year since 2017.

During the first three months of 2018, persons in private rented accommodation spent an average of just above eight nights there, while those in hotels about five-and-a-half nights. If private accommodation was “stealing” typical hotel users, you would expect their average to become lower over time as their average dilutes with the new cohort. Yet it actually increased between 2018 and 2019, to over nine nights.

The increase in average nightly stays in privately rented accommodation seems to stem from a new type of visitor: one that spends more than nine nights there.

Moreover, the total number of nights spent in Malta by tourists has increased by 114,000, with a decrease in nightly hotel stays, a significant increase in stays at other forms of rented accommodation and an increase in non-rented accommodation.

The news articles failed to mention the increase in tourists who instead of renting accommodation are staying with friends on the island. Those foreigners are not only paying your pension, but also bringing tourists!

Dissecting the 114,000 extra nights becomes a bit more interesting when looking at it from a nationality perspective.

There was a decrease in the total number of nights spent by tourists from almost all countries, which was counterbalanced by an increase if 149,000 nights from the grouping ‘other’ - a whopping 131% of the increase in the total number of nights spent in Malta. That means it is compensating for the decrease in the number of total nights of all other visitors.

The NSO lists 15 countries and regions as well as ‘other’ in its tourism statistics.

The group “Other” is the largest cohort by total number of nights spent in Malta – even higher than the UK. Only tourists from “other” nations and visitors from Australia and the Netherlands spend an average of more than eight nights in Malta.

The smoking gun for the increase in privately held rented accommodation seems to be this “Other” category. But what is this category?

It could be many things: an increase in English language tourists from non-listed countries (although last year there were fewer than 90,000 English language students, so this seems unlikely); maybe it is liars who aren’t actually in Malta for a holiday but rather seeking work (hence the long stay); or maybe it is visitors who are staying with friends but filled in the report incorrectly, Perhaps it is a combination of the above and other reasons.

If the MHRA wants to understand why its numbers diminished, it should consider investigating this cohort and comparing its results on an international scale. My hunch is that private renters are not the main cause of this discrepancy for the first three months of 2019.

Lessons learned?

This article might seem like a sermon, and a boring one at that. At the risk of sounding patronising, here’s one further piece of advice - this time to media outlets. It would be good practice for news articles that are reporting summarised numbers to link to the actual report too … some of us may learn more from reading that.

Dominic moved in with his parents as of last month. He really needs to book a hotel once in a while as they are doing his head in.