Poor countries will be forced to shell out 20 per cent more for their cereal imports this year because of rising prices on global markets despite increased output, the UN food agency said yesterday.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation said 70 countries defined as low income and food-deficient, including 39 African states, saw a 5.6 per cent rise in cereal output in 2010 but this would not be enough to offset high import costs.

The Rome-based FAO also said it expected global wheat production to increase in 2011, saying it had already gone up by 3.4 per cent so far from last year.

It said this was largely due to a recovery in production in key exporters that were affected by drought in 2010, including Russia.

The current production level of 676 million tons of wheat however remained below that seen during bumper harvests in 2008 and 2009, FAO said.

FAO warned that dry conditions in January in Tunisia had “dampened hopes for a robust wheat production recovery.” It added that the events in North Africa had displaced large numbers of people and disrupted food distribution.

FAO also forecast a record maize crop in Malawi and Zambia but said there would be a drop in production in South Africa because of “reduced plantings in response to high level of stocks and low prices for maize at planting time.”

The UN agency also said food insecurity had increased in eastern Africa, while violence in Ivory Coast had hampered regional trade in western Africa.

In China, FAO said, the drought situation has eased but “the outlook for the wheat crop still remains uncertain.”

In Brazil, another key producer, the outlook is “positive” because of good rainfall, FAO said.