Tomorrow, Yukio Hatoyama will be sworn in as Prime Minister of Japan. For the mass media it seems that little which is newsworthy is taking place. Mr Hatoyama is no Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy or even Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The truth is that the world has lost its fascination with "the land of the rising sun".
These days Japan is eclipsed by the ascent of China. And yet, Japan is still the second largest economy in the world with a population almost as that of Germany and France combined. The "Japanese miracle" that in three decades (from the 1960s to the 1980s) transformed a devastated society into a leading industrial powerhouse may have lost much of its lustre but the country should not be written off. This is why tomorrow's ceremony is so important: it could lead to a revitalised Japan with a clear global and regional mission. Or it could simply accelerate Japan's demise; though even that is worth noting.
To understand why Mr Hatoyama is such a gamble we have to understand where Japan is coming from. The country emerged from World War II impoverished and destroyed. Its morale was shattered, especially after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki experience.
The US assumed overall administrative authority until 1951, when Japan was given back its sovereignty. Japan accepted not to arm itself; America would take care of its defence requirements against payment and the provision of military bases. Presently, the US has 40,000 military personnel and 134 bases in Japan, costing the host government some $2 billion annually.
When the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) came into office in 1955, it sought to give a new vision and sense of purpose to the people: economic reconstruction. A unified social front was formed involving the government, the civil service and business. Employers were expected to provide adequate pay and a job for life to employees. Initially, Made in Japan meant cheap, copied, mass-produced goods. Within a decade companies such as Toyota, Mitsubishi, Sony became household brands with a reputation for quality and affordability. Academics and policymakers around the world praised Japan's superior management practices. The West was demoralised and threatened (as it is now with China), fearing it will not be able to keep pace with Japan.
Industrial growth, huge trade surpluses and high domestic savings had helped the financial and real estate sectors to boom. Until, in 1990, the bubble burst. For the last 17 years, the Japanese economy has practically not grown at all; this is partly due to continued price falls (deflation) and a weak home demand. The worst hit are the workers, a third of whom now have temporary or part-time jobs and earn 40 per cent less than regular ones. The global economic recession, over-dependence on exports and an over-valued yen led to further shrinking of the economy over these last months.
Japan was practically a one-party state. The LDP was in power for 54 years (broken by an 11-month spell in 1993). Then, last month the LDP suffered a humiliating defeat. The left-leaning, union-supported Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which was only set-up in 1998, won 308 out of 480 seats. The few experienced DPJ elected candidates, like the mild-mannered, 62 year-old Mr Hatoyama himself, are LDP dissidents. Mr Hatoyama's grandfather was a founder member of the LDP and served as Prime Minister between 1954 and 1956. His father and brother too served as ministers in LDP governments.
The Japanese were prepared to leap "in the dark" in the hope that things will change. They too wish to preserve their standard of living and ensure that the country will afford their pensions. Government debt (financed mostly by domestic savings) is approaching 200 per cent of GDP. Japan has the highest life expectancy in the world. By 2025, one in every three Japanese will be over 65 years. Rural Japan is dying a slow death. Yet, Japan's "island mentality" enabled it to exploit globalisation while preserving much of its core identity. The Japanese prefer to rely on robots rather than immigrants. The younger generations are urbanised, hypermodern and technologically savvy. They felt deeply insulted by the LDP decision to ban any internet marketing during the last electoral campaign.
Changing Japan will not be easy. Mr Hatoyama talks about fraternity replacing market fundamentalism. He wants to cut waste, to increase transparency and accountability. His biggest challenge is to get the cooperation of the bureaucracy to reform itself. Given the inexperience of his team, Mr Hatoyama cannot afford to antagonise the civil service as these will be instrumental in devising and implementing the necessary policies. (Some observers claim that real power in Japan has always been with the civil service and that the DPJ will soon face a reality check.)
Equally challenging is finding Japan's proper place on the international scene. Japan wishes to cut the false umbilical cord with the US. It desires to assert itself as the leading power in the region, building some form of economic union around it, before it becomes over-shadowed by China (and India). Is America ready to allow Japan to play this new role? What is the future of Sino-Japanese relations?
Youkoso (welcome), Mr Hatoyama. You will need all the samurai spirit you can master.