A major eruption of Italy's Mount Vesuvius could result in 8,000 fatalities, 13,000 serious injuries and total economic losses of more than US$24 billion, according to a new study supported by the Willis Research Network (WRN) that puts Vesuvius at the top of the list of Europe's 10 most dangerous volcanoes.
The WRN, funded by Willis Group Holdings (NYSE: WSH), the global insurance broker, is an industry-leading public-private partnership between Willis and many of the top scientific research institutions in the world.
The WRN volcano risk ranking, which examines European volcanoes with potentially affected populations of greater than 10,000, was developed by researchers from the University of Cambridge, the University of Naples Federico II and Willis
Re, Willis' reinsurance broking arm.
In the paper titled Insurance Risks From Volcanic Eruptions in Europe, the researchers propose that the ranking be used as the basis for developing the first detailed insurance risk models for volcanoes in Europe and various European overseas territories. At present, no such models exist.
The WRN team identified the 10 most dangerous European volcanoes based on the size of a potential eruption, the number of people potentially at risk, and the value of property in the area surrounding each volcano.
The study found that, together, the 10 volcanoes could affect almost 2.1 million people with an aggregated exposed residential property value of US$85 billion. The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland that erupted this week was not on the list, but the Hekla volcano, Iceland's most active, was ranked as the ninth most dangerous volcano in Europe.
Vesuvius poses the greatest risk to life and property, the study found, because it has the highest exposed population (1.7 million people), the highest exposed residential property value (US $66.1 billion), and the greatest potential for a seriously damaging eruption among the top 10 volcanoes.
The study noted that more than 87 per cent of the aggregated exposed property value for the 10 volcanoes is concentrated in the Neapolitan region near Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei.
The WRN European volcano risk ranking below shows the number of people living in the area that could be affected by 25cm of ash fall in the assumed greatest eruption.
It also shows the total residential property value exposed to severe damage or destruction in that eruption, taking into account the total number of dwellings within possible reach of pyroclastic flows or 25cm ash fall and their full current reconstruction cost.