During the 1970s and 80s it had become customary to speak about managing change. This was due to the significant social changes that were taking place and the changes in economic policies that were being implemented by the likes of Margaret Thatcher in the UK and Ronald Reagan in the US.

In the area of economic policies, the word ‘Reaganomics’ was created to reflect the supply side economic policies adopted by the then US president.

There were other things happening that all pointed to change, such as changes in information and communication technology which was still in its infancy for the commercial sector – the intelligence agencies of a number of States had already embraced the new technologies but kept them for themselves – and the rise of Arab power thanks to the oil resources in the Middle East.

Change was all around and so the maxim that change is the only constant was coined. In reality, it was not a new phrase at all as the Greek philosopher, Heraclitus, had first spoken about how everything in life changes.

Then at a certain point we stopped talking about managing change and steered the conversation towards the need to think of change in a more positive manner. Thus we started speaking of the need to promote and initiate change, and not just manage change. Leaders in organisations at all levels were expected to be the protagonists of change and not just managers of it.

The concept of initiating change is still very difficult to grasp for many people in management as the future is not possible to predict.

True enough the future cannot be predicted, but man (and not computers) still has the intellect to understand the signs of the times in society, business, technology, politics, education, culture, and interpret them in a manner to implement necessary changes. In several cases this has led to innovation and invention.

One of the best examples is a smartphone and all the things it has rendered obsolete.

The only possible answer to it is being prepared

A favourite party game is identifying a minimum of 20 things that have been rendered obsolete by smartphone technology.

However, even in today’s world, the capability to initiate change is starting not to be enough. The level of unpredictability is such that we need to develop the capability of managing the unexpected. The title of this week’s contribution is to be viewed in this sense.

Many developments around us are disruptive and appear to be out of line with the business environment we are accustomed to operating in. One can imagine the complexity of running a business when one still has members of the management team not even understanding the need for change and their role in implementing it, and are now being expected to manage the unexpected.

Examples of the unexpected is the havoc created in several countries by climate change and natural disasters. In smaller countries that could mean an issue of survival. In countries with a large surface area, they may appear to be less noticeable as they get lost in the larger scheme of things. A couple of weeks ago I wrote about the possible impact of the melting of the Arctic glaciers on the Mediterranean and its surrounding countries.

Since we are speaking of the unexpected, we cannot really forecast what could happen. When the unexpected happens, it would be very chaotic – which should not be confused with chaos generated by short-sighted policies. The only possible answer to it is being prepared – which is also a very old motto attributed to Lord Baden Powell, founder of the Scout movement.

The events will destroy those businesses that are unprepared and reward those that are prepared to counter unexpected threats and turn them into opportunities. The fundamental issue here is learning. Whatever anyone does for a job, one needs to see that job as part of the process of learning. The more the learning that tales place the more we are prepared for the unexpected.

This issue is crucial also for our economy. Being happy with our present may give us a thrill – but it is a thrill of the moment. Managing an economy cannot be based on thrills. It requires foresight and preparedness – which come from learning – to be able to manage the unexpected and the disruption it brings.