The European Central Bank is not expected to announce any new measures tomorrow to boost the eurozone economy, although inflation dropping to close to zero could well prompt active discussion about stimulus.

Negative deposit rates – charging banks to deposit at the ECB – and some form of asset-buying programme may lie further out. Eurozone annual inflation ticked down to 0.5 per cent in March, its lowest since the economy was deep in recession in 2009, and its sixth month in what ECB President Mario Draghi has called “the danger zone” below 1 per cent.

The fall in inflation was slightly sharper than expected, and gave ammunition to those on the ECB’S Governing Council who want do more to stem the threat of deflation.

However March’s inflation reading is not seen prompting policy action right away, as it is not much weaker than the ECB’s forecast last month and was driven by the kind of softer food and energy prices the bank usually judges as temporary.

The ECB refrained from taking further action in March despite forecasting inflation would undershoot its target of below but close to 2 per cent well into 2016, which disappointed the market and pushed up the euro exchange rate close to $1.40, its strongest level since October 2011.

Since then, several policymakers have talked about what the ECB could do should the exchange rate weigh more on inflation and if the risk of deflation became more serious. A levy on banks’ overnight deposits at the ECB was seen as the preferred tool to temper a currency rise, while the hurdle to start printing money – as central banks have done in the US, Japan and Britain – remains high.

A Reuters poll on Monday showed that 18 out of 22 euro money market traders expect interest rates to remain at 0.25 per cent. The findings are in line with a separate Reuters survey conducted last week which had only two of 72 economists calling for the central bank to act tomorrow.

The ECB has set out two scenarios that could prompt fresh action: a deterioration in the medium-term inflation outlook and an “unwarranted” tightening of short-term money markets.

The latest inflation figures did not trigger either, economists said. Economists also expect inflation to rebound in April, due to the later date of Easter this year than in 2013.

However, the low inflation reading sparked fresh calls for more easing from the International Monetary Fund on Monday. With interest rates close to zero, the room to manoeuvre is limited and another cut in the main refinancing rate would probably be accompanied by a cut in the deposit rate, now at zero, an unprecedented move policymakers seem to be warming to.

None of the major central banks have used a negative deposit rate, which means that banks have to pay to park their money at the ECB, giving them an incentive to lend while making euro-based assets less attractive and weakening the currency.

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