In a few months’ time, 450 million Europeans should be going to the polls to elect their EU Parliament representatives. The election will be followed by months of horse trading as the different political groupings decide on critical key positions in the EU’s governance structure.
What will the EU look like this time next year and, more important, how will EU citizens feel about the future?
The EU has been facing an existential crisis for a long time. It survived because so far no political leader of substance has come up with viable alternatives. Britons may think that they have found a solution through Brexit but so far most people still fear for their future as the way ahead looks foggy. This explains why many are turning to maverick populists who may speak convincingly about what needs changing in the way the EU is run, but who have no real solutions to resolving the Union’s economic and social problems.
The political catwalk season has begun. Sitting MEPs and wannabe candidates are busy in their constituencies using Twitter and other social media platforms to convince an increasingly sceptical electorate.
They try to convince many ordinary citizens that this time round people’s interests will be put first in the creation of jobs, social housing, protection of the environment, curbing of corruption, upgrading of healthcare systems and improvement of educational achievement levels.
A Eurobarometer survey held earlier this year among 27,600 voters across Europe should worry political leaders. But, of course, it will not. Forty-four per cent say that the EU is heading in the wrong direction while only 32 per cent say it is heading in the right way. Typically, the European Commission will be spending €30 million of taxpayers’ money on get-out-the-vote advertising and support, aimed in particular at young people and those with soft support for the EU.
For the next year and beyond inertia will grip the EU
Is this likely to succeed? Experience is not encouraging. In the 2014 European Parliament elections turnover dropped for the seventh time in a row to less than 43 per cent. In Slovakia, just 13 per cent voted. Perhaps even more worrying, populist parties are more likely to mobilise disgruntled citizens to express their anger by voting for maverick politicians than the traditional parties. Even the recently popular President Macron and his En Marche are struggling to convince an increasingly disgruntled French electorate that he is much different from previous unpopular presidents like his predecessor Hollande.
For the next year and beyond inertia will grip the EU as the pre-election rituals claim the time of politicians and their cronies. Many citizens will switch off and come election time they may not vote or vote for populist candidates. Italy, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland and some other states face the most significant risks of being represented by an increasing number of Eurosceptic candidates.
The centre-right group is predicted to once again be the largest grouping in the European Parliament and in the European Council. One shudders to think how the EU can make more sense to Europeans when it is likely to be dominated by Eurosceptic. Even Angela Merkel, who is arguably the most reliable sensible leader in the EU, is struggling to put some sense in the EU governing structure as her position is weakened in her coalition in Germany.
The centre-left coalition is even more depressed. In Italy Matteo Renzi has managed to alienate not only social democratic voters but has led his party in a fratricidal war that will undoubtedly be punished by the electorate next May. The rising star in the social democratic camp is the Dutch Frans Timmermans who is likely to be the centre-left candidate to replace EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.
However, even Timmermans cannot resist the abused rhetoric that characterises traditional politicians. The Dutchman and second-in-command of the Commission said his decision to run was motivated by a wish to tell his children he had “tried his best” at a time when the EU was facing existential challenges. “Where were you? You had all these ideas and you were always telling us how important Europe was. But where were you at crunch time? I have to be able to answer that question,” he told the Financial Times in an interview.
After months of inertia leading to the EU Parliament elections, the most likely outcome will be a few more years of the EU Commission and Council bickering over immigration, initiatives to promote employment and growth and ineffective strategies to counter the US’s isolationist policies.
johncassarwhite@yahoo.com