Two-thirds of English language schools are expecting student arrivals in the key season to be "worse" than last summer, answers to Feltom's quarterly questionnaire to Malta's schools have shown.
Just over a quarter of schools believe arrivals will be the same as last year; just 6.7 per cent think there will be an improvement, Federation of English Language Teaching Organisations (Malta) president Andrew Mangion told The Sunday Times.
Asked about their projections for the fourth quarter, 73.3 per cent of schools expected it to be worse than last year. A fifth said it would be the same; 6.7 per cent expected an increase.
Mr Mangion said the industry, which "plateaued" in 2008, should be stronger by the latter part of 2010. And 2011, he believes, should be a "one of the best years ever".
Mr Mangion said it was unlikely that the downturn would cause schools to close, but he expected to see some mergers and a possible contraction in full-time staff numbers.
"The industry is certainly going to take a significant hit in double digit percentage points," he admitted.
"The weak sterling meant Malta lost a lot of ground to the UK, our major competitor, which has seen arrivals increase by over 20 per cent. Demand by agents has decreased - 90 per cent of students select Malta to study English through agents. Rates have been weakened as there has been some discounting, but there is no proof that numbers have improved.
"Some markets have been more sensitive to the international economic situation. The junior programmes have been affected mostly as their studies are paid for from discretionary income."
The 18-30 age bracket makes up over half of the adult market and does not include the corporate segment.
Malta's entry into Schengen affected 2008 numbers to a lesser extent but had complicated matters for students arriving from other destinations needing visas, most notably Turkey, the CIS and Ukraine, South Korea and Japan. The situation is being rectified and Feltom has held meetings with the Foreign Office and the Tourism Ministry to identify solutions to visa issues.
Meanwhile, the embassy in China has issued visas for students to travel to Malta and the industry is beginning to regain the market it lost in 2005, Mr Mangion added.
Despite powerful international players establishing English language schools in China, Mr Mangion pointed out that rather than posing competition, developments in that market could be beneficial to Malta.
"More students undertaking English language tuition in China means more students could come to Malta to further their studies," he said. "Our total immersion programme means students are also able to practise their language skills beyond the school."
Malta faces strong competition for the Chinese market from Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US. Mr Mangion said the EFL industry should partner the University of Malta and operators of private tertiary programmes to boost numbers from China.
"Chinese students are looking for pathway programmes," he explained. "English is a stepping stone to higher education which ultimately leads them to jobs abroad and back home. We need to look at the development of new products for the Chinese market and promotion in China. We are now working with the Malta Tourism Authority and Malta Enterprise to look at joint promotion opportunities in China. Ten years down the line, the biggest market for the EFL industry will definitely be China."
Analysing figures released by the National Statistics Office earlier this month, Mr Mangion pointed out that although student arrivals dipped slightly to 83,288 last year from 2007's 83,900, student weeks were up two per cent to 216,722 from 212,094 the previous year.
While the mainstream tourism industry uses nights as a measure of length of stay, the EFL industry uses student weeks. English language students' average length of stay rose to 2.6 weeks from 2007's 2.4.
Spain lost its top spot last year, dropping 36 per cent to lose 14,500 student weeks when compared to 2007, the year Malta benefitted from an influx thanks to a scholarship scheme by the Spanish government. Mr Mangion said all destinations have seen a drop in Spanish numbers since.
Visa issues arising after Malta joined the Schengen area contributed to Turkish student weeks falling by 24 per cent. Shorter stays by the Swiss saw student weeks drop by 17 per cent.
The German, Russian, and Italian markets increased by nine per cent and the South Korean by a remarkable 26 per cent mainly after local schools intensified marketing campaigns in these countries.
The spread has remained unchanged: 60 per cent of student arrivals are constituted by the adult market and are from the 18 and over age bracket.
Malta's EFL industry, which is believed to be worth between €85 to €100 million, employs over 2,000 people; teaching staff last year alone increased to 1,340 from 1,257 in 2007; three-quarters are women.
The EFL industry constitutes a 'significant' market within Malta's tourism sector: 13.5 per cent of tourist bed nights are attributable to the language travel industry, irrespective of whether students stay in hotels or with host families. Significantly, over 45 per cent of all?EFL students arrived in the winter and shoulder months last year, up from 40 per cent for the same period in 2007.
Asked how the EFL industry could lend a helping hand to the ailing three-star hotel market, Mr Mangion said schools and hotels should examine possibilities for further collaboration. Many students preferred to stay in hotels rather than host families and had contributed to shoring up this corner of the hospitality industry.
Around 15 of Malta's 40 English language schools are members of Feltom and increased interest should see member schools rise to 20 by the end of the year. Feltom schools account for between 70 to 75 per cent of inbound students.
Feltom, which this year celebrates its 20th anniversary, is the only organisation in the local industry to offer accreditation by an independent council which employs inspectors to verify that Feltom member schools comply with standards.
It also actively promotes Malta's EFL industry and its members internationally, and lobbies with local authorities to ensure the industry's success and sustainability.
Feltom will hold the industry's first workshop at the Radisson SAS Baypoint Resort in St Julian's between September 10 and 13 to mark its anniversary.
The federation, which has teamed up with Language Travel magazine, will host international agents to a familiarisation tour of Malta. They will later attend a workshop for agents and local language schools. A business forum on the third day will be addressed by international keynote speakers who will focus on long-range prospects locally and overseas.
Over 140 applications have been received for the 50 available places; 25 local schools have confirmed their attendance. Feltom is to cover the cost of international delegates' participation thanks to sponsorship from Air Malta and other industry stakeholders.