Seven PL candidates won two districts on June 3. After the party executive decided which seats to clear, Kurt Sansone tried to find out who will step into Parliament.
Casual elections are expected to be held later this month to fill the seats vacated by the candidates elected on two districts.
Labour had seven such candidates, and last Saturday the party executive decided which seats would be vacated.
The Nationalist Party executive was expected to make its decision yesterday evening and a similar exercise for PN hopefuls will appear in tomorrow’s paper.
The rules of a casual election stipulate that the votes held by the candidate giving up the seat, normally the district quota, are re-opened and distributed among the contestants according to voter preference.
To be elected, a candidate must win half the district quota.
If nobody reaches the benchmark in the first round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and his or her votes are redistributed among the rest.
The process continues until a candidate reaches the casual election quota. If the last remaining candidate fails to reach the quota, the vacated seat will then be filled through co-option.
All candidates start the casual race with zero votes, irrespective of how they fared in the election.
However, by looking at two criteria, one may start to piece together a picture of who stands a better chance to get elected.
First criterion: Votes transferred to the candidate vacating the seat.
When a candidate is eliminated from the electoral race, their votes are redistributed according to voter preferences on other candidates. It is reasonable to say that any votes transferred to the candidate vacating the seat will eventually be returned during the casual election.
Second criterion: Surplus votes inherited from the candidate vacating the seat.
When a candidate is elected, any surplus votes above the quota are redistributed.
Looking at how these surplus votes have been transferred can give an indication of how the rest of that candidate’s votes will be distributed among the contestants in a casual election.
Bedingfield vs Buontempo
District 2
Votes to distribute: 4,062
Casual election quota: 2,031
Seat given up by Helena Dalli
| Contenders | Surplus received | Transferred to Dalli |
| Glenn Bedingfield | 11 | 0 |
| Stefan Buontempo | 12 | 0 |
| Mark Causon | 0 | 10 |
It is difficult to gauge from the numbers alone which candidate has an advantage. However, on the first count Bedingfield polled almost double Buontempo, making it plausible that voters kept this margin of popularity with their subsequent preferences.
Bedingfield’s surname also puts him at an advantage given the tradition of so-called donkey voting, in which voters first choose their preferred candidates and proceed to award their preferences from top to bottom. Bedingfield is the favourite but could still be given a good run by Buontempo.
Newcomer vs outgoing MP
District 4
Votes to distribute: 4,033
Casual election quota: 2,016
Seat given up by Chris Fearne
| Contenders | Surplus received | Transferred to Fearne |
| Stefan Buontempo | 79 | NA |
| Joe Cilia | 70 | NA |
| Andy Ellul | 158 | NA |
| Etienne Grech | 175 | NA |
| Dominic Grima | 46 | NA |
| Rita Sammut | 29 | NA |
The Health Minister’s election on the first count constrains us to look only at how his surplus was redistributed.
If voters kept the same pattern of preferences, this casual election could see a close race between newcomer Andy Ellul, a lawyer, and outgoing MP Etienne Grech, a doctor. Grech may enjoy a slight advantage, since his name appears after Fearne’s on the ballot.
His medical profession also gives him a natural advantage.
A one-horse race
District 5
Votes to distribute: 3,870
Casual election quota: 1,935
Seat given up by Joseph Muscat
| Contenders | Surplus received | Transferred to Muscat |
| Glenn Bedingfield | 676 | NA |
| Luciano Busuttil | 189 | NA |
| Roderick Cachia | 416 | NA |
| Mario Calleja | 378 | NA |
| Joseph Cutajar | 262 | NA |
| Joe Farrugia | 418 | NA |
| Edric Micallef | 89 | NA |
| Sebastian Muscat | 149 | NA |
| Rita Sammut | 60 | NA |
| Carlo Stivala | 336 | NA |
| Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi | 1,883 | NA |
Given that Muscat was elected on the first count, none of the casual election contestants has a ready source of votes coming their way.
However, looking at the Prime Minister’s surplus vote distribution gives a clear indication of voters’ thinking: Zrinzo Azzopardi may be the clear favourite here.
Former mayor to MP
District 6
Votes to distribute: 3,847
Casual election quota: 1,923
Seat given up by Silvio Schembri
| Contenders | Surplus Received | Transferred to Schembri |
| Rosianne Cutajar | 20 | NA |
| Gavin Gulia | 6 | NA |
If the surplus pattern is repeated, Qormi mayor Rosianne Cutajar could easily be the PL’s fourth woman elected. She is clearly the favourite, pitted against former MP Gavin Gulia.
A minister returns
District 8
Votes to distribute: 3,968
Casual election quota: 1,984
Seat given up by Edward Scicluna
| Contenders | Surplus received | Transferred to Scicluna |
| Ian Castaldi Paris | 0 | 52 |
| Rosianne Cutajar | 0 | 291 |
| Rachel Tua | 0 | 28 |
| Edward Zammit Lewis | 142 | 0 |
Qormi mayor Rosianne Cutajar is likely to inherit a reservoir of 291 votes. Former tourism minister Edward Zammit Lewis has none, because he was the last to be eliminated. His votes did not have to be redistributed, since all seats on the district were filled. However, Zammit Lewis inherited 142 votes from Scicluna’s surplus when the latter won. This could indicate there are many more vote transfers to his name.
Though Zammit Lewis appears to be the favourite, Cutajar may give him a run for his money.
Mayor vs former minister
District 9
Votes to distribute: 3,384
Casual election quota: 1,926
Seat given up by Michael Falzon
| Contenders | Surplus received | Transferred to Falzon |
| Conrad Borg Manche | 0 | 423 |
| Manuel Mallia | 0 | 742 |
| Sigmund Mifsud | 0 | 26 |
| Nikita Zammit Alamango | 0 | 55 |
| Edward Zammit Lewis | 0 | 0 |
Former competitiveness minister Manuel Mallia starts the race with a 300-vote advantage over Gżira mayor Conrad Borg Manche. Though the mayor enjoys the advantage of being top of the list, it is very likely that voters on the 9th gave the former minister a higher priority.
Zammit Lewis could be a dark horse, but Mallia remains the favourite to take back his seat.
Upsetting the apple cart
District 12
Votes to distribute: 3,899
Casual election quota: 1,949
Seat given up by Evarist Bartolo
| Contenders | Surplus received | Transferred to Bartolo |
| Joseph Matthew Attard | 0 | 47 |
| Clayton Bartolo | 0 | 998 |
| Alfred Grima | 0 | 83 |
| Franco Mercieca | 0 | 172 |
| Deborah Schembri | 144 | 0 |
| Kenneth Spiteri | 0 | 20 |
| Fleur Vella | 0 | 6 |
Newcomer Clayton Bartolo starts the race with a reservoir of almost 1,000 votes.
This gives him a head start over outgoing parliamentary secretary Deborah Schembri. This casual election will be between Bartolo and Schembri, but Bartolo is very likely to deny Schembri a return.