The Malta Labour Party is expected to win around 51 per cent of the votes at the local council elections on March 11, overturning the PN's victory three years ago, sources said yesterday.
Feelers obtained by both the Nationalist and Labour parties indicate that the PN would win around 44 per cent of votes while Alternattiva Democratika and independents would get four to five per cent.
When elections were held in the same localities three years ago, the PN had obtained 48.9 per cent, the MLP 46.97 per cent and AD polled three per cent. Those elections were held in parallel with the EU membership referendum and had therefore seen a much stronger turnout than is expected on March 11.
The PN is expected to win "traditional" PN strongholds like Victoria in Gozo, San Gwann, Sliema, Naxxar, Pietà, Birkirkara, Mdina, Mgarr and Lija, though possibly with smaller margins, while the MLP is likely to obtain majorities in Sannat and Gharb in Gozo, Cospicua, Xaghjra, Zabbar, Kalkara, Marsascala, Tarxien, Gudja and Ghaxaq.
Rabat and Msida, currently controlled by the MLP and the PN respectively, are considered to be hanging in the balance.
The feelers about the mood in local councils contrast sharply with results of a national poll taken last December by the Nationalist Party, which shows that the people favour the PN's policies to those of the MLP.
When asked about policies on issues such as the environment, the economy, state finance, as well as police performance, a strong majority preferred the government's polices to the MLP's; typical results showed around 40 per cent of respondents in favour of the government's policies while between 18 and 25 per cent said they would opt for the MLP's policies. AD hardly ever featured, with percentages ranging between under one per cent to two per cent at most, even on issues championed by AD, like the environment.
The only sectors where support for PN and MLP polices was close - although the PN was marginally ahead - were health, justice and housing.
An overall question about government performance showed a 53 per cent approval rating for the government, while 30 per cent said it was doing badly and 15 per cent did not know or did not reply.
Political observers noted that the results of such a poll were likely to be the reason for the PN's low-key campaign and the Prime Minister's repeated insistence that the biggest goal is the general election, and taking the decisions and doing what has to be done between now and then.
Contacted for his reactions, PN secretary general Joe Saliba said the PN believed in local councils and the elections were part of the democratic process, but the party chose to treat them at the local level.
"As a party in government, our main focus is working on a national level. That does not mean we don't believe in local councils. A PN government set them up and funded them, but local councils should not detract the government from its main policies," Mr Saliba said.
Asked about the projections, Mr Saliba said he preferred not to comment.
"We are a part of the world. In Germany, Italy and the UK, most local councils are in the hands of the opposition. It is natural that they would be so. The MLP acts as if we are always in an election campaign. It creates tension. We live normally and take the decisions that have to be taken. If the government were to postpone the decisions it has to take because of elections, then nothing would ever be done because there is an election every year," Mr Saliba said.
MLP secretary general Jason Micallef said the MLP would continue to work to get the best possible results. "We feel the MLP has retained the support it had when it won the elections for the European Parliament. But I would prefer to comment about the result after the elections," he said.