The subject of traffic has been somewhat unavoidably in the headlines recently, what with the Kappara project, its detours, residential parking schemes, a ferry petition, the Nationalist Party’s strategy on traffic congestion and the CEO of eCabs’ no-nonsense response to it all having made for some lively debate.

 That’s not likely to slow down either, with the Chamber of Commerce’s seminar on sustainable transport and Paragon Europe’s Bike-to-Work day all set to make the headlines in the next few days.

All have the same theme. Traffic won’t get any easier in the long run, and clearly we need to make some kind of modal shift away from car use.

While it’s easy to see this happening in other countries, it’s not so easy here. Firstly, Malta only has one mass transport system, and car ownership is a political landmine that both political parties are afraid to stamp on.

A good friend of mine once explained that he had to spend every weekend on his cabin cruiser in order to get his money out of it. Car ownership is similar.

While road pricing, congestion charges and paid parking have been really successful in creating a modal shift in other cities, would it work as well in Malta without a reduction in the fixed cost?

We tend to go for either all stick or all carrot, and the latest suggestions, much like the recent policies, tend to be all carrot and no stick. But will an all-carrot approach work?

We have grown accustomed to spending anhour in trafficfor a trip that took 15 minutes five years ago; we’ll accept double that ina few years

While the number of people on bicycles is small compared to other countries, initiatives like the National Bike Count, a voluntary roadside poll of people on bikes at rush hour, seems to indicate a slow but steady rise in cycling’s modal share in the last three years.

More reliable GPS tracking data such as the Strava Lab’s cycling heat map app seem to confirm this, particularly a significant increase in urban commuting routes equivalent to the average car trip of 5.2km.

We are seeing fresh (blue) threads of new commuting routes develop and a stronger following on the established (red) routes. That’s good news for drivers, as there is a clear correlation between even a small modal shift helping to speed up traffic flow, but it’s still mostly voluntary. It’s still all carrot.

And therein lies the problem. We can suggest metros, trams and monorails till the cows come home. Even public bike share schemes. But remembering that most car trips are single occupancy, offering someone an underground will result in the same excuses we see in cycling.

I have to give so-and-so a lift, carry heavy things, go somewhere else after work. Or our favourite: I’ll sweat too much walking to the station. People will give up and just use their car.

The bottom line is if we make using a car the most convenient method to get around, that’s what people will do.

Spend millions on a multi-station metro, without discouraging car use, and guess what human nature will do?

In the same way that we have grown accustomed to spending an hour in traffic for a trip that took 15 minutes five years ago, we’ll accept double that in a few years as part and parcel of owning a car.

Create a trade-off, deterrents and benefits that both parties  agree with in the long term, and you might have a chance of tiptoeing through the congestion minefield. But it can’t be just voluntary.

If we really want a modal shift and metro or monorail alternatives to work, we need to break our car habit, or they will be doomed to failure.

Jim Wightman is PRO of BAG Malta.