Almost tomorrow and the end of the second act in the third major political play in north Africa – but not quite. Unless Muammar Gaddafi’s armed forces, or a significant part of them, in the Tripoli area change sides and join the protesters, the Tripoli nightmare will take considerable time to play out. As the days roll away, the heat on Malta will grow.
Whichever way it goes, Malta will be badly hit economically. There is extensive Libyan investment in Malta, and even more Maltese investment in Libya. The upheaval to date has already brought much of that to a grinding halt. Losses will start mounting.
Even if the new revolution in our neighbour was to be completed in a relatively short time, it will take months for some semblance of normal administration to emerge, given the absence of political, demo-cratic and administrative set-ups, deliberately kept that way over Col Gaddafi’s 41-year old absolute rule.
It will then remain to be seen whether the new leadership recognises Maltese-Libyan two-way commitments and facilitates their resumption.
That lies in our coming tomorrows. Meanwhile, what lies ahead in Libya is potential early stalemate. The government forces are well armed and Col Gaddafi has handed out weapons to that part of the civilian population in Tripoli that still backs him. Those who do not back him are at a grave disadvantage. That can be tackled in two ways – if there is mobilisation from the east of the country, now in the hands of the protesters, and a march on Tripoli. Or if there is foreign intervention.
In the latter eventuality it is possible our government will be approached to allow Malta to be used as a staging post. That is a possibility that must be worrying the Prime Minister. Not surprisingly. Detest authoritarianism and worse as we all do, it would be a mistake to involve Malta in any armed attack on Libya, although carried out with an immediate good objective.
It is not only that the bi-party approach to the existing situation would probably be broken, with the Labour Party opposing renewed if temporary use of Malta as a military base. Beyond that justified consideration, there would remain the future. Malta’s geography is fixed. While the situation in Libya could remain volatile for years, to date, successive governments have kept us out of such potential tensions. That might not be the case if Malta becomes a forward base for military intervention in Libya.
Media reports stress the cooperation by the government and the opposition on the situation and also say the Prime Minister is concerned. He has good reason to be that. Either way, there could be negative implications for Malta, beyond that which already exists in the form of the instability that is inevitable when political upheaval takes place in our region.
It is a rare occasion that the government and the opposition are collaborating. One hopes they will go on doing so as the Libyan drama continues to unfold. For that to happen, they have to be totally frank with each other. Which should not be difficult. It is not only the future of the Libyan people that is at stake.
Whether we like it or not we shall be under the fallout from this White Sea drama. When tomorrow comes we have to be well positioned for it. We might, as is our wont, indulge in controversies about the cooperation our various leaders from both sides of the political divide had with Col Gaddafi’s Libya since he and his fellow officers overthrew King Idris four decades ago.
Cynical but true, fact is that governments collaborate with each other whatever their hue. A superpower might contemplate regime change, as the US and the UK did regarding Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Others work with the government of the day, distasteful though its style and domestic record might be. That, after all, has been the cases since Col Gaddafi’s Libya was brought in from the cold seven years ago.