Fears of a threat to Ireland`s cherished neutrality are the biggest stumbling block to getting the EU`s enlargement treaty past voters, Ireland`s National Forum on Europe said yesterday.
Ireland risks throwing the EU`s expansion plans into turmoil for a second time when the government stages a repeat referendum this year to try to get a reluctant electorate to accept the Nice treaty, aimed at reshaping the bloc`s institutions to cope with the admission of a dozen new members.
The Irish guard their neutrality jealously, seeing it as an integral part of the country`s pacifist tradition and a reflection of Irish foreign policy.
Last June, Ireland effectively hamstrung EU plans to bring in a large group of central European and Mediterranean countries when it rejected the Nice Treaty by 54-46 per cent.
The Forum, set up by the Dublin government and intended as an independent body to stimulate debate on EU membership in the wake of the referendum vote, said squaring Irish military neutrality with EU common security policy remains the issue of most concern to the public.
Chairman of the Forum Maurice Hayes, called for "a plainly worded statement" from the government, endorsed by its EU partners, that nothing it commits to under Nice means a departure from Ireland`s policy on military neutrality.
"Forum members are also seeking reassurances from the Government that there is no plan to enter any military alliance for mutual defence, that it is not going to be a party to any plans to develop a European army," Hayes said at the presentation of the Forum`s interim report.
Under pressure to get the treaty ratified, Prime Minister Bertie Ahern is expected to request the insertion of a special declaration on Irish neutrality into the treaty at a European Council meeting in the Spanish city of Seville in June.
Ratification of Nice is one of the biggest challenges facing Ahern, who swept back into power earlier this month and is currently locked in coalition talks with former government junior partners the Progressive Democrats.
A second referendum on the Treaty is expected to be held in the autumn and already Ahern has his work cut out for him.
Opponents of Nice made strong gains in the Irish election on May 17 and a recent opinion poll showed declining pro-treaty sentiment and gains for opponents, with about a third in favour, a third against and a third undecided.
In addition to neutrality, voter confusion over what the treaty meant, fears that smaller states would lose out if it were passed and voter apathy were all factors in the treaty`s rejection last year.
Ireland is the only one of the EU`s current 15 member states that needs a referendum to ratify Union treaties.
Only two other member states, Belgium and Greece, have still to ratify Nice, which has to be approved by all member states by the end of 2002.
The EU hopes to wrap up accession talks by December with 10 candidates - Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Cyprus and Malta. Bulgaria and Romania hope to join the bloc later in the decade.