The journey between Gozo and Malta will be slashed to 12 minutes if the tunnel linking the two islands materialises, according to pre-feasibility report.

The crossing currently takes motorists an average of 50 minutes – including queuing, boarding and disembarking – though the limited capacity on ferries means some passengers are left behind.

A permanent link would also see traffic increase by 10 per cent that is expected to translate into nine per cent growth for Gozo’s gross value added after 10 years.

The economic-cost benefit analysis, carried out by economist Gordon Cordina and seen by The Sunday Times of Malta, studied three options: keeping the current ferry system, or replacing them with a bridge or tunnel.

The tunnel emerged the winner – it was more cost-effective, it could be run by the private sector at a small profit of 5.25 per cent without any financial contribution from the government, and was the least polluting option.

“Before carrying out in-depth and expensive geological studies you have to carry out an analysis of the economic options, taking into account all the risks you’ll be facing, and that is what we did,” Mr Cordina said.

“We wanted to see if it was worth embarking on geological studies in the first place,” he added, in reply to carbon geologist Peter Gatt’s comments that the geological studies should have come before the feasibility studies.

Transport Malta CEO James Piscopo said the geological studies were set to start towards the end of 2016 and take between one to two years. Construction would take a further three years.

A tunnel in Norway, similar to the one that could be built between Malta and Gozo.

Tunnel to have two-lane carriageway

The sub-seabed tunnel, which will stretch about 10 to 12 kilometres, will have a depth of at least 100 metres and 50m of rock above it.

“I want eradicate any misconceptions and make it very clear that the tunnel will have nothing to do with the marine environment as it will be below the seabed,” Mr Cordina said.

The plan is that the tunnel will have a single, two-lane carriageway, with an additional safety lane. Its cost was not expected to exceed €300 million.

However, Dr Cordina stressed that this capital expenditure, which excluded taxes, was twice the normal benchmark based on a risk-adjusted approach with a slim 0.5 per cent probability that the budget would be exceeded.

One of the original ideas put forward in a report by Mott MacDonald in July 2011 had proposed a route with entry and exit points west of Mellieħa and below Nadur as the preferred option.

Gozo’s beauty and attractiveness should be cherished but not at the expense of isolation

However, the latest report, commissioned by Transport Malta and the Gozo Business Chamber, stops short of indicating an entry and exit point.

Mr Piscopo said the aim was to try and locate the tunnel’s entry point in Malta in such a way that would alleviate traffic congestion from the north of the island, such as Xemxija for example.

A year ago, this newspaper had revealed that a feasibility study on a bridge by the China Communications Construction Company calculated it would cost some €1 billion – including taxes – and take four years to complete.

However, during the Budget it was announced that a tunnel was more feasible. Why should the electorate believe the proposed tunnel was not more pie in the sky? “A tunnel is the cheapest option and based on the successful experience of Norway a very doable option,” Mr Cordina said.

The net incremental economic benefits of the bridge compared with the business-as-usual scenario (the ferry service) over 20 years was estimated at €412.2m, compared with the tunnel’s €618.7m.

Maintaining the status quo through the current Gozo Channel ferry service would mean that by 2030 the government would have to pump in €120m to replace an ageing fleet, as well as factor in another €21m a year in fuel and operational costs.

Mr Cordina said that once the tunnel was built the ferry service would be completely redimensioned to target niche markets and the idea was that motorists using the tunnel would pay a similar rate as the current ferry charges.

On the other hand, for the bridge to become feasible without the need for public expenditure, toll prices would have to go up by at least 90 per cent.

Having a permanent link between the two islands has been debated for years, with many – usually Maltese – questioning the impact this would have on Gozo’s idyllic character.

Dr Cordina said that any fixed link could lead to good and bad outcomes, which was why its socioeconomic management was crucial.

“I agree that Gozo’s beauty and attractiveness should be cherished but this should not come at the expense of isolation.”

Times Talk will be discussing the issue of the tunnel on Tuesday at 10.05pm on TVM.