In the mid-1990s, the then Social Democrat Deputy Prime Minister, Mona Sahlin, was widely considered to be the next leader of her party, in which case she would become the first woman to head her party and almost certainly the first woman to be Swedish Prime Minister, given the political dominance of the Social Democrats. Then Ms Sahlin was hit by scandal: “Toblergate”.
In the media it was revealed that she had sometimes used her working expenses credit card for private uses. Including, by her own admission, buying two bars of chocolate!
It seems that, in fact, Ms Sahlin had always repaid her private expenses. But the allegations came with others, such as the fact that, one year, she had not paid her TV licence, a criminal offence in Sweden. Eventually, she took time off from politics, returned to ministerial duties in the late 1990s and, in 2007, took over as political party leader.
This anecdote tells us two of the things one needs to know about the Swedish general election to be held in nine days’ time.
First, something about the country and the standards it demands of its politicians. I doubt the issue was ever about the money. It was about equality.
The law and regulations had to apply for everyone.
Second, the issue helps explain why Ms Sahlin has since then struggled with personal popularity ratings, in comparison to the success early in her career. She would not have become party leader in 2007 had not other more popular women, including European Commissioner Margot Walstrom, not ruled themselves out of the running and endorsed her.
It is said that policies still trump personalities in Swedish electoral campaigns. However, the incumbent conservative Prime Minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, has consistently outstripped Ms Sahlin in his personal popularity ratings. When she became leader, Mr Reinfeldt’s government was languishing in the polls. Since then, it has steadily recovered.
The personality issue could turn out to be decisive as the two alliances respectively headed by the two are now running neck and neck, with the centre-right Alliance for Sweden narrowly ahead of the Red-Greens.
The election is also raising important issues, however, which have a bearing on European politics.
The first concerns the balance to be kept between controlling the deficit and fighting inequality.
The conservative Moderate Party has traditionally always been a party of tax cuts, often aimed at the most affluent members of society. Under Mr Reinfeldt, the emphasis on tax cuts has persisted, although the aim has shifted towards people with a middle-range income.
This might seem like a good thing. It has controlled deficit spending in Sweden to a great extent, which may, in turn, have helped the country avoid the major financial and economic crisis that has engulfed other countries.
However, deficit control has also come at a cost. The famous Swedish welfare state has been trimmed, just as the international crisis has seen unemployment in the working population reach 9.5 per cent. Among the unemployed are a fifth of young people under the age of 24.
Inequality in the country has increased, just as it did the last time the Moderate Party headed a government, back in the early 1990s. The Moderate’s promise in 2006 to reduce unemployment has not been kept.
Equality is an important political value is Sweden. The fact that social disadvantages are mitigated by a broad array of state welfare services has long been a source of pride. It probably explains why the Social Democrats have governed the country almost uninterruptedly for several decades. The Moderates have governed only for brief interregnums, finding it difficult even to win a second successive term.
Despite the distinctly Swedish flavour, the issue is one that is recurring elsewhere in Europe. For example, in the British leadership election in the Labour Party, the argument over whether the UK’s Labour should return to emphasising a politics of equality is shaping the entire contest.
Other issues in this election concern the left and the far right. Sweden’s conservatives are warning that Ms Sahlin will be governing in a coalition, should she win, whose members are anti-American and in favour of the closure of US bases abroad. The far right is on course, given current polls, of winning parliamentary seats.
In my view the salient one, however, concerns the socio-economic issue.
Social Democrats everywhere have to think hard about how to square their welfare commitments with the pressures of an economy trying to steer through a crisis. Some 15 years ago, social democrats were winning elections across Europe after having fundamentally re-thought their policies to adapt to the new economy.
It is now clear they were helped by the fact that those were boom years. The rethinking needs a new impetus now so that policies can adapt to economies in crisis. If Social Democrats are successful, they may well repeat the wave of the earlier electoral success.
Dr Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European Parliament.