The latest monthly analysis by the world's leading provider of automotive data and intelligence, JATO Dynamics, sees the European new car market enjoying what could be the last wave of scrappage-incentivised sales, contrasted by apparent first signs of a slowdown.

Volkswagen Golf and Ford Fiesta continue to be the only contenders for the 2009 top-model crown, which Golf is looking certain to secure comfortably, through its almost universal popularity across Europe.

"On first inspection, European new car sales figures look healthy, but look closer and there are some ominous signs," says David Di Girolamo, head of JATO Consult.

JATO's monthly 27-market analysis shows that November 2009 was a significantly better month for new car sales than the same period in 2008, as expected. However, in key markets, the sales surge is lessening as scrappage schemes close. In Germany, October 2009 sales were up 24.1 per cent on the same month in 2008. In November, this gap closed to 19.7 per cent.

By contrast, France, Italy, Spain and the UK all returned buoyant sales figures for November, as their schemes are set to endure until at least the end of the year.

"Already, we are seeing reduced new car imports into Europe and the extent of the decline in sales will be something to watch carefully over the next couple of months. You only have to look at Eastern Europe, where there are no such schemes to see a truer picture of the new car market place - demand here is significantly lower, year-on-year," Mr Girolamo said.

Volkswagen Golf remains the best-selling model in Europe, up 59.9 per cent against a stagnant November last year. Ford Fiesta remains second and is up by an even greater margin - 64.7 per cent in the month - but trails Golf by 97,000 units to date.

Fiat's Punto and Panda are the other big beneficiaries of scrappage, recording November sales up 45.4 per cent and 54 per cent respectively and healthy increases for the year to date.