The European Commission will next week urge EU nations to hike their targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions from 20 to 30 per cent, saying the costs and risks to industry are less than previously estimated.

"Both the international context and the economic analysis suggest that the EU is right to continue preparing for a move to a 30 per cent target," the commission argues in a paper to be given to the 27 European Union member states on Wednesday.

Until now Europe has agreed only to cut emissions by 20 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020. The offer for a 30 per cent reduction has until now been dependent upon similar undertakings by other major industrialised nations.

But in its paper the EU's executive arm argues strongly that "an EU target of 20 per cent by 2020 is not enough to put emissions onto the rights path" to reach the overall goal of keeping global warming below 2°C.

The extra economic effort required to reach the tougher reductions goal is "while still substantial, has fallen", the commission argues. It estimates now that the total cost of such a move would be some €81 billion, just €11 billion more than had originally been cost in for the agreed 20 per cent emissions cut.