Though in theory Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi can call an election on any of the 26 Saturdays falling between March 1 and August 23 following Alfred Sant's concluding address to Labour's general conference on Sunday, in reality there are only 11 Saturdays when polling can take place, political observers noted yesterday.
The most probable options are March 8 or 15 and any Saturday in April or May. It is technically possible to hold an election on March 1 but as Parliament will on Tuesday discuss the motion calling for the ratification of the EU Reform Treaty, it is highly unlikely that the Prime Minister will dissolve Parliament and call an election before Wednesday.
The European and Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives last Tuesday unanimously expressed itself in favour of the Lisbon Treaty. The ratification motion, moved by the Prime Minister, is expected to be debated in the House on Tuesday and, given that it was unanimously approved by the select committee, it is not expected that the discussion will take more than one session. Hence, the Prime Minister will be able to call the general election any time after Wednesday.
A minimum of 33 days are required between the dissolution of Parliament and election day, so the first possible date will be March 8, the same day local elections are supposed to be held.
Traditionally, the writ for local elections is issued on the last Thursday of January or the one before but, by law, this can be issued any time until February 2. Local elections can, however, be delayed by four months. Even if a writ is issued, local elections can still be delayed, so the issue of the writ will not necessarily have any bearing on the date of the general election if the Prime Minister opts to hold the two elections simultaneously later.
The March 8 date seems to be among the more favourite ones as it also marks the anniversary, of the 2003, EU referendum and can therefore have nostalgic significance for the Nationalists.
The idea of having an election early in March is fuelled by an early Easter, when many people like to have short breaks abroad. Easter this year falls on March 23, hence an election on March 22 is unlikely given that it will be Easter Saturday. An election on March 29 is also unlikely as the campaign would have to be interrupted the weekend before because no party would hold meetings between Maundy Thursday and Easter Sunday. Another reason against holding an election on March 29 is the number of people who might be abroad for their Easter holidays.
If an election is not held in March, the alternative will be either April or May. April 26 can be a candidate if an election is called on the first Monday following Easter. Any of the five Saturdays in May can be a plausible option.
An election in the beginning of May can again offer the possibility of a campaign for the PN recalling the celebrations held when Malta joined the EU and engage the electorate in a discussion about the benefits of EU membership and recall Labour's arguments against EU membership and its claimed negative repercussions.
In June, village feasts start and elections during the month are not very popular, but still cannot be ruled out. June 7 is an unlikely date, being a public holiday.
Dr Gonzi is known to be discussing the options with a number of people as, although it is his prerogative to call the shots, various factors come into play. The biggest factor is, of course, uncertainty which can also negatively affect the country's economic rhythm.