It does not take a rocket scientist to work out that the tourism industry is set for a tough 2009. With the world recession deepening by the day, together with the banking crisis in key markets and the fall in value of sterling, the sector is in for a choppy ride.
Malta Hotels and Restaurants Association president Kevin DeCesare told last Friday's annual general meeting that most hoteliers were predicting a 20 per cent drop in occupancy for the winter months, and some believed it would be even worse.
Parliamentary Secretary for Tourism Mario de Marco did not shy away from painting a realistic picture either, telling the association's members that the situation for next year "does not appear positive" and "is further aggravated by the airline industry cutting seat capacity".
The din of the thud caused by local tourism operators coming down to earth will be all the louder because of the stratospheric heights the sector has reached in the past two years - we will most likely end 2008 with an overall growth of around four to five per cent, as arrivals reach 1.3 million.
Mr DeCesare took aim at the government, the Malta Tourism Authority in particular, for not reacting fast enough to the downward trend in tourism seen in recent months. He said a number of hotel operators felt abandoned and believed that the support from the MTA was not what it used to be.
Dr de Marco, on the other hand, said it was down to everyone to brush-up their act, and the tourism product on offer must be improved. "On this one, the buck does not stop only with me or with the government. It stops with all tourism operators, not to mention all citizens."
While there is rarely ever a situation where the government could not do more, or not do it better, there is little doubt that major players in the tourism field have become a little too comfortable as a result of the record figures seen in recent months. As a result, they are unprepared for what now lies ahead.
Truth be told, everyone knows what the key to attracting tourists to the island is at a time when they are even more careful over how to spend their precious money: having an attractive place at the right price, and knowing how to promote it.
Yet we also know - though considerable efforts have been made in certain areas, such as the restoration and presentation of some historical sites - that there are many things which blight a visitor's experience; such as rampant construction and a lack of what Dr de Marco described as "value for money". If the Maltese want to see improvements in this regard, they have to look in the mirror and not necessarily point fingers at the government.
However, we also have to ensure we preserve what has been a success. Few would deny that the best model of touristic development in the countryside has been the Danish Village in Ghadira. So it seems incomprehensible that the government is proposing to build a road through pristine land right next to it. Furthermore, this proposal is to replace an existing road that is both scenic and purposeful running alongside Ghadira bay, and to make what was four lanes, two.
The reasoning behind this is flawed. Not just because there is little sense to it, but because we need to put all our money and energy into 'fixing' our failures, rather than our successes, if we are to get some positive returns from the coming year.