A referendum on divorce would see 40 per cent vote in favour and 45 per cent against, but almost 14 per cent are still undecided and would probably hold the balance, according to a Misco survey commissioned by The SundayTimes.
The majority, 58 per cent, agree that any decision on the introduction of divorce should be taken through a referendum, while 20 per cent believe it should be the current crop of 69 MPs who should be making the decision in Parliament.
Only 11 per cent believe that the decision on divorce should be decided through a general election.
MP Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando may have misjudged the public's yearning for a divorce referendum by proposing a private member's bill in Parliament but he does seem to have captured the public mood when insisting the divorce issue should be decided before the next general election.
The survey found that irrespective of people's voting intentions in a referendum or their preferences on how the decision should be made, 56 per cent believe the matter should be decided before the next general election.
The survey by Misco International Ltd randomly polled 800 respondents and was conducted by telephone between July 26 and 28. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent.
An analysis of those in favour of divorce shows that 55 per cent would prefer the decision to be taken in a referendum. Moreover, 70 per cent of them would prefer the decision to be taken before the next general.
In contrast, those who are objecting to the introduction of divorce are more strongly in favour of a referendum (62 per cent), while 45 per cent of this group believe that the decision on the matter should be taken before the next general election.
The survey also gives an indication that the Church does not have a strong influence on the divorce issue. Although 83 per cent of people consider themselves to be churchgoers, only 19 per cent said their decision on divorce would be influenced by Church instructions.
The overwhelming majority, 75 per cent, said it would be their own conscience that would influence how they vote on divorce. A deeper analysis shows that conscience is the predominant influencing factor for 85 per cent of those in favour of divorce and 66 per cent of those against.
A small minority of six per cent of those who would vote in favour of divorce said their decision would actually be influenced by Church instructions.
With 75 per cent insisting their own conscience would influence their decision on divorce, the number far outstrips the influence politicians may have, which stands at a paltry one per cent, and that of the Church, which stands at 19 per cent.
The Church may still command influence in society but the results show that on divorce the flock may not necessarily follow its shepherd blindly. Though a relative majority of 45 per cent are against divorce and agree with what the Church preaches, only 19 per cent said instructions from the Church would influence their decision on divorce.
The results of the survey do not paint a final picture since 14 per cent said they did not know how they would vote in a divorce referendum. However, even these people argue in their vast majority (76 per cent) that their conscience would be the guiding light when deciding on divorce. for this proposal cuts across all age groups.
The highest margin of those favouring a decision before the election is found in the 18 to 34 age group, with 62 per cent agreeing with this course of action, while the least supportive are those in the 55 to 64 age group even though an absolute majority of 51 per cent favour a decision being taken now rather than after the election.
More from The Sunday Times in the News section.