Egypt’s uprising managed to decapitate an authoritarian system, but the regime’s arms stretch far and wide, leaving many anxious to avoid another “pharaoh” during a critical transition period.
The nationwide protests that erupted on January 25 drove strongman Hosni Mubarak from power and saw a new military leadership assume what it says is temporary control over the Arab world’s most populous nation.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has vowed to pave the way for democracy in a transitional period of six months, leading to parliamentary and Presidential elections following key constitutional changes.
But many have questioned whether six months is long enough and whether the proposed reforms go far enough in removing what the opposition describes as the “god-like” powers granted to the President.
The constitutional changes being discussed have revolved around easing restrictions for presidential candidates, setting presidential term limits, and judicial supervision for elections.
Opposition groups are also looking for Egypt’s restrictive parties law to be amended, to give banned movements – including the Muslim Brotherhood – and emerging youth groups the chance to form legal political parties.
A conglomerate of youth groups that helped launch the uprising, the Coalition of the Revolution’s Youth, has urged a complete change from a presidential system to a parliamentary system.
“A move to a parliamentary system would guarantee the end of a long-standing pharaoh ruler system,” Ahmed Kamal Abulmagd, a professor of constitutional law at Cairo University, said in a television interview on Tuesday.
Holding legislative elections within three months, according to the timetable proposed by the military council, could pave the way for a Parliament dominated once again by Mr Mubarak’s National Democratic Party, analysts say.
On Thursday, Opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei called on Egypt’s new military rulers to allow civilians to share power in the transitional period to prevent any return of the old regime.
The Nobel peace laureate urged the ruling military council “to form a temporary Presidential council that would include civilian figures ... to undertake Presidential duties during the transitional period.
“The Presidential council should represent the national forces as well as the military and create the democratic and institutional framework to give people time to prepare during the transitional phase, without rush,” he said.
Mr ElBaradei, a former UN nuclear watchdog chief, said in a statement that the transitional phase, which the military has said would last six months, threatened to send Egypt back into “the arms of the old regime”.
Civilian representation over the period of transition was crucial so as not to allow the country to slide “back into dictatorship”.
Holding rushed elections could also benefit the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest and most powerful opposition group in the country, and sideline emerging rivals.
Some analysts have even suggested a power sharing deal between the Islamist group and the army during the transitional period.
The uprising “got rid of the head of the regime and removed the possibility of succession (of Mr Mubarak’s son) but the regime is still there,” said Emad Gad, a researcher at the Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic and Political Studies.
“The proof is that (former) vice president Omar Suleiman is at the presidency every day,” he said, referring to Mr Mubarak’s longtime ally and intelligence chief.
He predicted the military council would push Suleiman as a presidential candidate and make a deal with the Muslim Brotherhood to give them parliamentary seats in return for their support. The Brotherhood, which is currently the only organised body to sit on the constitutional panel, has repeatedly denied having presidential ambitions.
Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, who heads a caretaker government, has said the military council will decide Mr Suleiman’s role in the transitional period.
But Mr Gad believes such a deal would fail, that the Muslim Brotherhood would only gain 15 per cent of seats and that free elections would not guarantee a win for Mr Suleiman, particularly if popular Arab League chief Amr Mussa runs.
“The Muslim Brotherhood may be the strongest organised opposition, but the uprising proved that the political equation in Egypt is different,” said Mustafa Kamel al-Sayyed, professor of political science at Cairo University.
“Most of the youth, who were behind the uprising and who want a civil state, will play a large role in parliamentary elections by supporting candidates with the same vision,” Prof. Sayyed said.
“It all depends on how quickly a new political parties law will be issued,” he said.