The greatest revenue growth for video-on-demand (VOD) will come from a surprising source: the humble vending machine, according to Deloitte's predictions for the media sector in 2010. The volume of DVDs distributed via vending machines will double in 2010, the report highlights.

Jolyon Barker, global lead for Deloitte's Technology, Media and Telecommunications Industry, said: "This year's predictions cover a range of topics, including the supremacy of broadcasters' programming schedules. Over 90 per cent of television and 80 per cent of audio is expected to be consumed in this manner, meaning linear will continue to reign supreme in 2010, despite the proliferation of non-linear options."

Drivers such as price (as low as $1 per night) and ease-of-use will be key to the success of the DVD vending machine. In most markets, vending machine rentals are likely to be cheaper than post-based rental services or outright purchase. And vending machines are already future proofed for the migration to HD DVDs, which can reach 25 GB in size.

The vending machine model is still likely to face some challenges in 2010, as some content owners may delay DVD sales to vending machine owners until after initial release to protect sales revenues. Melding web content with television programmes should intensify as concurrent use of the web and TV takes off in 2010. But a surge in internet-enabled television sales or an explosion in the use of television widgets is not expected; converged web and television consumption is likely to be more pragmatic.

Converged web and television consumption is expected to be based on existing televisions and devices, with "convergence" being user-driven, given the mismatch between the swelling consumer demand for concurrent web and TV usage and the typical 10-year renewal cycle for televisions.

Users will combine existing sets with stand-alone browser-enabled devices, most WiFi enabled laptops and Netbooks, smart phones, MP4 players, and portable game consoles. As simultaneous web and television use gains popularity, television producers will be encouraged to create websites that feed off viewers' eagerness to react to what they are watching.

In 2010, the newspaper and magazine industry will continue to threaten to charge readers for online content, however that talk is unlikely to be matched by action, according to the report. Publishers rumoured to be thinking about pay walls may ultimately decide against it, or are choosing hybrid models where most content is free, while charging only for a limited quantity of premium content. Publishers who use pay walls need to maintain and publicise the premium nature of their content. Excessive cost-cutting could devalue the brand. Online readers might be willing to become micropayment customers, but only if the content is good enough and worth the effort.

"For some, acquiring an article for 30 cents online may not justify the time taken to enter credit card details. Also, the value of the micropayment strategy to the content provider requires volume: one micropayment per customer every two weeks might result in transaction costs exceeding gross margins," the report concludes.