China's future leaders are committed to market-orientated reform started by their predecessors, but may lack the confidence to push on with painful changes seen crucial to long-term economic health, analysts say.
China's leaders have met in recent weeks at the seaside resort of Beidaihe to hammer out a succession plan for the ruling Communist Party ahead of a five-yearly party congress this fall.
While there is much speculation on who will come out on top, analysts say those set to take power are solid backers of the changes that have turned China into Asia's star economy and enriched many of its 1.3 billion people, analysts said.
But the murky process of selecting the new leadership has stalled reform as lower officials try not to rock the boat.
"There really is no debate about whether economic reform could be rolled back in any significant way," said a Western diplomat. "There is such a large middle class now that would be affected were reforms to be stopped or rolled back."
The results of their secretive debate will be unveiled at a congress in the next few months that in turn will set the stage for changes in key government posts next March.
Once settled, it could take time for key reforms like cleaning up the financial system to get rolling as the new leaders settle into their new jobs, analysts said.
Picking up where the old guard left off won't be easy. Major problems loom over China's economy.
Many state-owned firms are burdened with bloated payrolls and shoddy products. Bad loans threaten to overwhelm a creaky banking system. Farm incomes are stagnating. Corruption is rampant.
"I think the course of reform is set. It's well-known now what China needs to do," said Peter Batey, chairman of BateyBurn, a consultancy specialising in government relations.
"The issue now is the pace of reform and it's this great balancing act the Communist Party has to undertake between the necessity of economic reform to provide the wealth to increase people's standards of living, and of course the pain in the short-term that causes," Batey said.
The biggest economic worry may stem from pure politics. Rumours are swirling that Communist Party chief Jiang Zemin may try to hold on to that title rather than relinquish it to his heir-apparent, Hu Jintao. Some say such talk is a gambit by Jiang to wring concessions out of his political foes, but a protracted power struggle could spook investors.
"If Jiang escalates the leadership struggle to a degree that widens the currently rather narrow rifts between CCP factions, he risks undermining the investor-friendly stability that has characterised Chinese politics (however undemocratic) since the mid-1990s," Bear Stearns economists David Malpass and Michael Kurtz wrote in a recent report.
Jiang's manoeuvrings aside, the man tipped to take the helm of the economy is Vice-Premier Wen Jiabao, a protege of current economic supremo Zhu Rongji.
A former geologist, Wen has balanced his mentor's infamous bullying manner with a reputation for consensus-building.
Though he has had a role in financial and rural affairs, he is seen as unproven on broad economic matters, analysts said.
But he has impressed observers with a friendly style, sharp mind and deep sense of loyalty.
A famous photograph taken during the 1989 student protests in Tiananmen Square shows Wen standing next to then-party chief Zhao Ziyang, who was purged after the June 4 massacre.
"Both his talent as a superb administrator and his role as a coalition builder seem to explain his legendary survival and success," political scientist Cheng Li wrote in his book China's Leaders: The New Generation.
Wen is expected to take a seat on the party's Politburo Standing Committee and will probably take over the government job of premier from Zhu in early 2003, diplomats and analysts said.
"He can survive, he's smart, but he is keeping quiet, as he should. The history of succession is not that good in developing countries or authoritarian ones," the diplomat said. "I bet he'll show leadership in different ways."
While it is too early to pin down next year's changes to the government ministries, analysts say there is no dearth of younger and talented officials to step into key economic posts.
"The coming crop of policy makers seem to understand the critical reform tasks," the Bear Stearns economists wrote.
For instance, securities regulator Zhou Xiaochuan or Bank of China chief Liu Mingkang could head up the central bank.
Both men are often mentioned as capable examples of the so-called Fifth Generation of leaders that will succeed the Fourth Generation of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.
Ma Xiuhong, a vice-minister of foreign trade and one of the few women in the upper ranks of government, could replace Shi Guangsheng at the top of that ministry, analysts said.
Or the job could go to Long Yongtu, the man who led China's much-delayed but eventually successful bid to enter the World Trade Organisation, they said.
"Every indication is that the next generation of leaders, you name them, there's not going to be any one towering figure, but they are of a single, common view about the need for reform, the need to find market-based solutions to their economic problems," said one Beijing-based executive at a major multinational firm.