Statistical data allow for analysis of what happened, and are particularly useful to discern and analyse trends. No one and certainly no business can move ahead by only looking backwards. That is why statistics are also used to attempt to predict the future, although never too far out.

Recessions are looked at after the event, though operators usually know when they are in the thick of them. The global economy has certainly learnt a lot over the past 18 months. As most countries move hesitantly out of their economic declines, we are still learning.

The main point has been that emerging economies were not as affected by economic downturn as were the major developed economies. They experienced some slowdown in their rate of growth, but avoided absolute declines. The basic reason, I should think, is such countries' dependency on net new investment at their stage of economic growth.

Statistically Malta has not suffered severe recession. The measured quarterly decline was relatively low and the country was one of the earliest to come out of recession. It is forecast to register overall growth in the coming quarters, at a modest rate, but growth it is.

That outcome does reflect continuing new investment. It is also the result of expansion in essentially one main area, financial services. Their net increased contribution was enough to largely offset the contraction experienced by the tourist sector.

With tourism set to recover somewhat during 2010 and assuming that financial services continue to grow, and that manufacturing does not suffer new setbacks, performance over 2010 should be reasonably stable. That cautious conclusion also assumes that consumption will not be too squeezed by fresh upward thrusts in the cost of living, and that exports will recover.

Caution is the name of the current game. Confidence is an essential characteristic in steering the economy and we should certainly highlight any positive result, provided we do not allow ourselves to be carried away. In that regard the government tends to indulge in double-speak.

In the political context, meaning in its constant confrontation with the opposition, it preens rather carelessly about the country's economic performance. Outside the core political discussion, then, there is in fact an element of caution.

There should be more of it. Such energy as can be drummed up should be addressed at trying to attract new investment.

In that area, too, politics should be pushed to the background. For instance, signing the agreement with SR Technics during the Prime Minister's visit to the Emirates and Qatar a few days ago was an exercise in public relations. That was a done deal. The only merit of going back in time to sign a formal agreement in Abu Dhabi was the demonstration effect it could have on Emirati businesspeople, for which read the equivalent of the state over there. Signing a formal investment agree- ment by the Malta Enterprise chairman with his esteemed Emirati counterpart represented planting of a sapling which, hopefully, might grow into a strong tree, if it is nurtured.

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi's visit is part of the nurturing of other saplings planted by President George Abela during an earlier visit to the area. The Emirates and their neighbours are very much in the business of attracting inward investment. Yet they also keep their eyes open for suitable investment opportunities abroad.

The outcome from such visits should not be expected to materialise overnight. Decisions on new investment have a long gestation period. That is why Malta Enterprise is probably the most important institution in the public sector as the principal tool used to seek out foreign direct investment.

The lingering effects of the recession and the need for more investment is highlighted by segment analysis of economic performance, as touched briefly above. They are also emphasised more directly and on an up-to-date basis by people directly involved in our overall economic operations, including the financing thereof. The CEO of HSBC (Malta) implicitly offered such emphasis in his address to shareholders, reported in this newspaper on April 10.

Alan Richards apprised the shareholders of the performance of their bank, which he described as good in difficult circumstances. He also looked ahead, and what he had to say deserves very close attention.

The CEO opined that there were clear signs that markets were stabilising internationally. (But) he carefully added that the outlook for the Maltese economy and "general impairment levels" reached in 2010 remained "challenging'.

Translated that means that the bank has a number of customers who have deep problems which still have to be overcome. Theirs are considered to be "impaired" banking facilities, and HSBC is making suitable specific provisions against them. There can be little doubt that the Bank of Valletta has the same reading.

The two major banks have a massive loans and advances portfolio. It is inevitable that they will include clients which require specific provisions, on top of the general provision which the banks would be taking in any event. The banks are sound and well-positioned to support their customers.

Still problems clearly remain which justify references to a challenging situation. The recession may be in the past in the overall economy. More parts of it than normal, however, remain in the doldrums.