Foreign minister Tonio Borg and his Labour counterpart have supported change in Egypt, though expressed concern about the possible rise of Islamic fundamentalism.
Both politicians warned of dangerous scenarios if the revolt allowed Egypt’s largest organised opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, to fill the power vacuum that could be created if the system collapsed without an orderly transition.
The difficulty of interpreting the events in Egypt was evident yesterday in a debate organised by the Nationalist Party’s academy for political studies, AŻAD, that brought together politicians, academics and the Tunisian ambassador.
The discussion was the first of its kind in Malta since the dramatic events started to unfold in Tunisia and Egypt. The Egyptian ambassador was invited but did not attend.
With differing tones, Dr Borg and Labour spokesman George Vella seemed to embrace beleaguered Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s plea that he could not resign now because chaos would take hold.
Dr Vella went as far as saying that while protesting Tunisians were not shouting “Allah hu Akbar” (God is great), the situation was more worrying in the Egyptian context given the Muslim Brotherhood’s presence.
According to Dr Borg, the best solution would be a gradual handover of power to the vice president until elections are held in August or September to enable a peaceful transition.
“We cannot run away with the idea that if (Mr) Mubarak leaves today democracy will necessarily be installed immediately,” Dr Borg said.
The two politicians reflected the difficulty faced by Western leaders in the wake of the dramatic events unfolding in north Africa.
The mood of defiance and the feelings of trepidation and jubilation that accompanied the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 were rekindled over the past few weeks when people in Tunisia and Egypt took to the streets demanding an end to authoritarian rule.
But if the events unfolding in the Arab world – protests were also held in Yemen, Jordan, Algeria and Syria – have great semblance to what happened in Europe more than two decades ago, the comparison stops at that, according to University anthropologist Ranier Fsadni.
There was a fundamental difference in the relationship between the West and those who toppled the Communist regimes in 1989, and the people igniting the winds of change in the Arab world, he said.
Mr Fsadni said eastern Europeans wanted to embrace the values and way of life espoused by their counterparts in the West. This was not true for Arabs, who still viewed the West with suspicion.
“Too much influence from the US and the EU would backfire,” Mr Fsadni warned.
Democracy in Tunisia, Egypt and the rest of the Arab world would be achieved on the terms dictated by the people of these countries, and it was this realisation that had the leaders of the Western world in a fix.
The prospect of sudden change like Tunisia’s, he added, was less likely to happen in Egypt, not least because the army was more intertwined with the power structures.
“Egypt has a large army with a history and its own ethos. Retired generals are appointed to political office and the army is also an economic player,” Mr Fsadni said.
Mediterranean international relations analyst Stephen Calleya described the events unfolding in north Africa as a paradigm shift and a window of opportunity for Europe to show solidarity in concrete terms.
“Revolution is not a magic wand and Europe must offer solidarity to turn this into an evolution,” Dr Calleya said, proposing the setting up of a Mediterranean development fund where countries with an interest in the region could deposit money to be put to good use.
Tunisian ambassador Abderrahmane Belhaj gave an overview of the current situation in his country and said there was total freedom of speech.
“Everybody can say what he wants, and the future of Tunisia will be characterised by freedom. We will not have families who abuse the power of the state and we will have a stronger parliamentary democracy and a less powerful presidency,” Mr Belhaj said.
Asked about the prospects of a domino effect hitting Libya, Mr Fsadni said unlike other north African countries Libya had “deep pockets” because of its oil revenue.
There were numerous occasions, he added, where the Libyan system faced unrest but the issues were resolved internally.
Furthermore, unrest in Tunisia and Egypt was initially led by strong trade unions that could use the power of the strike to halt a country. There were no such organisations in Libya, Dr Fsadni said.
ksansone@timesofmalta.com