Australia's Bureau of Meteorology yesterday predicted that an El Niño weather system in the Pacific Ocean would be established by September-November at the latest. The bureau said there was now agreement between international weather models that an El Niño, which can bring drought conditions to Australia and weaken Asian monsoons, would be established by the southern hemisphere spring.

"The same six models ... predict established El Niño conditions (across a range of climate indices) by the southern spring at the latest," said the bureau in its latest ENSO report.

"Given the high level of persistence (and hence predictability) in ENSO during the second half of the year, the probability of an El Niño event continuing to develop and maturing late this year is high," it said.

El Niño, meaning "little boy" in Spanish, is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, and creates havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region.