The apparent sea change in the Arab world, given the popular revolt in Tunisia and ongoing rebellion in Egypt, could transform the region in a way not favourable to Washington, analysts warned.
As well as Egypt and Tunisia, observers are keeping a close eye on US allies Yemen, Saudi Arabia and notably Jordan – the only Arab country outside Egypt that has a peace pact with Israel.
If the US only pays lip-service to pro-democracy movements in the region and fails to align with them, it will “be perceived as a receding power having little influence,” said conservative analyst Danielle Pletka.
Washington is reluctant to denounce Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak because he is a key longtime ally in a vital region and a crucial partner in efforts to forge peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
There is also deep Western suspicion about the main Egyptian opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, particularly with regard to the Islamist movement’s dim view of Israel. Leading opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei sought on Wednesday to ease Western fears that a new Egypt would turn against Israel and the US.
“The hype that once Egypt becomes a democracy, it will become hostile to the US and hostile to Israel... these are the two hypes, and are fictions,” Mr ElBaradei told CBS News.
Observers agreed that Mr Mubarak was playing up Western fears over the Muslim Brotherhood to shore up US backing for a slower transition, but some felt Washington was also right to be concerned.
“There is a fear in the US that the Muslim Brotherhood could gain power and that a change in leadership will impact Egypt’s relations with Israel. Both of these fears are greatly exaggerated,” Marina Ottaway, of the Carnegie Foundation, said.
“These are the concerns that have kept Washington from putting pressure on the Mubarak regime for all these years,” noted Ms Ottaway, who is director of the Middle East programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Leslie Gelb, president emeritus at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, told the Daily Beast online magazine that “baloney and wishful thinking aside, the MB (Muslim Brotherhood) would be calamitous for US security.”
The group supports “Hamas and other terrorist groups, makes friendly noises to Iranian dictators and torturers, would be uncertain landlords of the critical Suez Canal, and opposes the Egyptian-Israeli agreement of 1979, widely regarded as the foundation of peace in the Mideast,” he said.
“Above all, the MB would endanger counterterrorism efforts in the region and worldwide. That is a very big deal.”
The push to support free elections and democratic reform in the Arab world was the calling card of the George W. Bush White House throughout the 2000s.
It was often used as reasoning and explanation for the controversial 2003 invasion of Iraq, and the overthrow of its long-time dictator Saddam Hussein.
President Barack Obama backed democratic reform in the Middle East from the start of his Administration. Delivering a keynote speech in Cairo in June 2009 that aimed to rebuild the US image in the region, he called for regimes to be responsive to its citizens’ “aspirations”.
In recent days, however, as violence on the Egyptian street has escalated, pro-democracy advocates have criticised what they see as a pale response from the Obama White House.
“The US is playing its hand badly right now – the Obama Administration has managed to turn the crowds against the United States,” said Ms Ottaway.
Unrest since Tunisian uprising
The aftershocks from the uprising in Tunisia that saw the downfall of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on January 14 are still shaking the Arab world, where a number of leaders have been in power for more than 20 years.
Egypt: January 25 saw the start of unprecedented demonstrations against President Hosni Mubarak’s regime, in power since 1981. On Tuesday, after more than one million people took part in anti-government demonstrations across the country, Mr Mubarak said he will not seek re-election in September and pledged to ease conditions for rival candidates to stand. But the concessions were rejected by the opposition and on Wednesday bloody violence broke out between pro- and anti-Mubarak demonstrators in Cairo’s central Tahrir Square.
Yemen: Protests have spiralled since mid-January calling for the departure of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power since 1978. On Wednesday, Mr Saleh said he will not extend his mandate and is against hereditary rule. But opposition leaders have vowed to go ahead with anti-government protests yesterday – billed as a “day of rage” – despite Mr Saleh’s pledges.
Jordan: King Abdullah II of Jordan, who has been in power since 1999, on Tuesday sacked the government after weeks of protests, but his choice of replacement premier failed to satisfy the powerful Islamist opposition’s demands for reform. The unrest started on January 14, when thousands of Jordanians took to the streets of Amman and other cities in protest at soaring commodity prices, unemployment and poverty.
Syria: In Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad has been in power since 2000, a group of online activists are promoting a day of anger after the main weekly Muslim prayers on Friday to end what they say is corruption and tyranny. On January 29, security forces prevented youths from gathering outside the Egyptian embassy in Damascus to express their solidarity with the Egyptian uprising.
Algeria: In Algeria, where President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has been in power since 1999, five days of protests in early January against high prices resulted in five people dead. A pro-democracy march planned for February 12 has been banned by the authorities.
Sudan: Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has been in power since 1989. Widespread economic and political discontent has provoked sporadic street protests in north Sudan in recent weeks. At least 64 people have been arrested and many injured.
Oman: Some 200 Omanis protested on January 17 against high prices and corruption. Sultan Qaboos has been in power since 1970.
Mauritania: President Moham-ed Ould Abdel Aziz took power in a military coup in August 2008 and was later elected President in July 2009. In mid-January, several thousand people demonstrated in Nouakchott against rising prices, prompting the government to announce a 30 per cent drop in the price of basic foodstuffs.
Morocco: In Morocco, where King Mohammed VI has been in power since 1999, the government in the wake of the unrest in Algeria and Tunisia, said on January 25 it would maintain subsidies on basic necessities.