Late last week, we had the publication of the labour force survey conducted in December last year. We have had the usual comments about some of the top-line data regarding the number of persons claiming to be unemployed. Such comments only serve to show that there are still a number who are unwilling to look at economic data and seek to interpret it logically.
The issue is not whether they give a negative interpretation or not, as any interpretation is by its very nature subjective and so can favour either one side or another. What is wrong is the intentional misrepresentation of facts.
However, the really interesting aspect of this survey is that it gives us the opportunity to make comparisons with previous labour force surveys, especially those that go back a couple of years, since changes would be reflecting medium- to long-term trends. This contribution shall as such focus on the labour force survey and shall also make comparisons with the March 2001 labour force survey. The overall indication from such a comparison is that we have an evolving labour market and that membership of the European Union is likely to accelerate the pace of change.
One of the main factors of this evolutionary process is the increased importance of women in the labour market. This trend has been evident for a number of years but seems to be becoming more pronounced.
In fact, the growth in the labour market is solely attributable to this increasing role of women. The percentage of what is termed as the active population (that is the number of persons who are either employed or unemployed as a percentage of all persons aged over 15 years) rose to 49.9 per cent in December 2002 from 49.2 per cent in March 2001.
This obviously is a strong indication of an increased participation rate in the labour market resulting from improved work opportunities. The number of employed persons as a percentage of the total population aged over 15 years rose to 46.5 per cent from 46.2 per cent while the percentage of unemployed persons rose to 3.4 per cent from three per cent. Among the female population, the economically active population rose 31.1 per cent from 28.3 per cent, while the male economically active population fell to 69.4 per cent from 70.9 per cent. The female employed population rose from 26.6 per cent to 28.5 per cent, while the male employed population fell from 66.6 per cent to 65.1 per cent.
Another aspect of this evolutionary process is the activity rate and the unemployment rate, where the ratio is between the number of persons aged 15 to 64 and the number of persons who are employed or unemployed. The total activity rate increased slightly from 58.1 to 58.4 in 21 months, while the increase in the female activity rate rose quite strongly from 34.3 per cent to 37.6 per cent.
The male activity rate fell from 81.6 per cent to 79.1 per cent. The total employment rate remained fairly static at 54.4 per cent, but the female employment rate rose from 32.2 per cent to 34.5 per cent, while the male employment rate fell from 76.7 per cent to 74.2 per cent.
This issue of a stronger role being played by women in the labour market is also reflected in average salaries. The total average salary increased from Lm4,695 to Lm4,912 between March 2001 to December last year. This represents an increase of 4.6 per cent, giving an annualised rate of 2.6 per cent.
The female average salary increased from Lm3,972 to Lm4,294, an increase of 8.1 per cent. The male average salary increased by 4.1 per cent from Lm5,027 to Lm5,235.
In March 2001, the average female salary represented 79 per cent of the male average salary; by December 2002 the female average salary as a percentage of the male average salary had risen to 82 per cent. This narrowing of the gap between male and female incomes may not be happening fast enough but if this trend were to continue in future, the gap would be closed within only a few years.
Signs of evolution are also appearing in terms of the main occupation undertaken by employed persons. In this case, gender is not an issue, but what emerges is equally important. Again, the comparison is between March 2001 and December 2002. The move towards the services industry and higher value-added manufacturing is all too evident.
We have had a decrease in the number of craft and related trade workers from 14.1 per cent to 13.7 per cent and a decrease of plant and machine operators from 14.1 per cent to 12.1 per cent.
On the other hand, we have had an increase of technical and associated professionals from 12.5 per cent to 13.9 per cent.
Another interesting development is the decrease in the number of professionals from 11.1 per cent to 9.5 per cent, at a time when the university graduate population is increasing. The indication one gets from this data is that university graduates are today being attracted to jobs that are not strictly tied to their profession but tied rather to a managerial role. In fact, the percentage of those persons classified as senior officials and managers rose from 6.9 per cent to 9.3 per cent.
Given the span of time over which the comparisons made in this contribution refer to, I believe that the changes that are taking place in the labour market are significant. I equally believe that that the pace of change shall accelerate in the coming months and years.
All to often these changes are in response to economic circumstances. We need to appreciate that society as a whole, and not just the economic operators, is well prepared to embrace these changes.