The Maltese population might not make it to the next millennium, according to an article on The Economist’s website.

Titled The End Of History And The Last Woman, The Economist quotes figures from the United Nations Population Prospects for 2010, which suggest women in 83 countries and territories will not have enough daughters to replace themselves unless fertility rates rise.

According to what the The Economist itself said were “back of the envelope” calculations, if present trends remain unchanged, Malta’s population will eventually vanish off the face of the earth around the year 2800, after Bosnia Herzegovina and Macau, and closely followed by Hong Kong, Portugal and Austria.

However, the Maltese need not worry too much about the nation’s long-term survival, as National Statistics Office director Michael Pace Ross has dismissed the calculations.

“At a national and European level, statistical institutes (including Eurostat) do not forecast populations beyond 2100,” he said when contacted.

“First and foremost, this is not needed by policymakers. Secondly, assumptions made today may need to change over time to reflect changing realities and scenarios. Migratory flows, for example, which may influence a country’s population, cannot be forecast. Unknown situations cannot be predicted centuries in advance.”

Mr Pace Ross added that when forecasting, NSO and other statistical institutes used appropriate methods and tools which would have been discussed in various fora at a European level, after consulting experts and users in this field. He gave the Pensions Working Group which meets in Brussels as an example. The working group’s primary role was to ensure sustainability of pensions at a European level.

“Undoubtedly, the declining fertility rates of women affect a country’s population, even Malta’s. However, the science of forecasting goes beyond back-of-the-envelope estimates or similar exercises,” he said.

According to figures from the NSO, Malta’s population at the end of last year stood at 417,608, while the number of births dropped by three per cent despite annual increases over the previous two years.