Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi’s decision to submit his Nationalist Party leadership to the test is a leaf out of the British Conservative Party’s book when its former leader, John Major, had done the same thing in 1995.

Facing mounting rebellion within the party, Mr Major, who was then Prime Minister leading a party in its fourth term in government, had resigned from leader and re-contested the post.

Mr Major, who was challenged by John Redwood, won the right to continue leading the Conservative Party but went on to lose the general election 18 months later to a Labour Party led by Tony Blair.

Former PN minister Michael Falzon believes it is hard not to draw parallels between Mr Major’s 1995 decision and Dr Gonzi’s.

“The only difference between the two is that Dr Gonzi has not resigned his post as party leader while seeking reconfirmation and this may create a statutory conundrum,” Mr Falzon said.

The rules governing the PN leadership contest say that to be elected leader a candidate has to obtain two-thirds of the vote, even if Dr Gonzi is uncontested.

Even if he does reach that threshold, a substantial negative vote could prompt Dr Gonzi to “rethink his position”, Mr Falzon said.

He conceded this scenario was highly unlikely because the political impasse created by backbencher Franco Debono had contributed to “a surge of popularity” for Dr Gonzi within the party.

But the mechanics of how the PN will go about reconfirming its leader may be secondary to the more important issue of whether this course of action will solve Dr Gonzi’s parliamen-tary problem.

Mr Falzon’s answer is a plain “no”, similar to that of former Labour minister and columnist Lino Spiteri.

Both agree that Dr Gonzi’s decision will do little to solve the issue of whether the government still enjoys a parliamentary majority after Dr Debono abstained on a no-confidence motion last week.

Mr Spiteri described the Prime Minister’s decision as “a tactical move” intended to pile pressure on Dr Debono so that he will have a change of heart in Parliament.

“Government’s parliamentary majority will not be regained because of the PN council’s decision but only through another vote of confidence or a positive vote on a money Bill,” Mr Spiteri said.

Nationalist backbencher and former minister Francis Zammit Dimech is more hopeful and believes the leadership race “should solve the crisis”.

“The Prime Minister was responsible and serious enough to accept responsibility for any decision that could have been better or possibly not right,” he said, adding that Dr Gonzi took the matter further by opening up the party leadership race in a transparent way.

Dr Zammit Dimech said the PN parliamentary group had to respect the people’s mandate for the government to be in office until 2013 but acknowledged that Dr Debono had, among others, expressed the wish to work with another individual instead of Dr Gonzi as Prime Minister.

“Given the constitutional convention that the President appoints the leader of the party with a majority of seats as Prime Minister, the only way to change him in a democratic set-up would be for the party to hold a leadership contest.

“Whatever the outcome of the contest this would be the result of a democratic process within the party and I would think that a person who rightly makes it a point to spell out issues of democracy would also respect democracy within the party.”

Somebody with a popular mandate to run the country until next year should not precipitate matters by calling an early election, he said. The PN should remain in office until a no-confidence vote is successful or government is defeated in a money Bill.

Dr Zammit Dimech also blamed the political turmoil on what he described as Labour leader Joseph Muscat’s “irresponsible and immature” behaviour of seeking an early election. “Dr Muscat’s election cry is warping what democracy is all about.”

Writing on his Facebook wall yesterday, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, another PN backbencher, disagreed with holding a leadership contest now.

“I absolutely disagree... Lawrence Gonzi was elected democratically,” Dr Pullicino Orlando wrote, adding that he had supported the Prime Minister during the 2004 leadership race.

The MP had insisted that after Dr Debono’s abstention during Thursday’s no-confidence motion, the only solution to the political impasse was a general election.

It is a feeling shared by the head of the Today Public Policy Institute Martin Scicluna, a commentator, who insisted an election was inevitable.

“A leadership election within the party is all fine but it doesn’t change the price of fish and the fact that this is a government on life support,” Mr Scicluna said.

If the party overwhelmingly re-elects Dr Gonzi as its leader, which Mr Scicluna expects to be the case, the administration would still be governing on borrowed time.

“And the borrowed time is at the behest of one of its own members of Parliament.”

ksansone@timesofmalta.com