If you’re still truly undecided about how you’re going to vote on Saturday, it’s almost certainly because you’re not sure who or what to believe about the consequences of the vote. In such circumstances, it may be better to begin your reflection from a different place.
Put to one side everything that can be reasonably doubted. Begin with what cannot be doubted since it doesn’t depend on politicians’ promises but on how the real world works. That will leave you with, essentially, four critical questions.
First, what will surely change in Malta if Forza Nazzjonali wins? That is, what will change irrespective of what Simon Busuttil and Joseph Muscat are promising will happen?
There is only one thing you can be absolutely sure of. Every political party – winners and losers – will be put on notice. Every politician will have been sent a stern message that the electorate cannot be taken for granted.
Forza Nazzjonali can only win if (minimally) 18,000 votes shift sides for the second general election in a row. It’s not just Labour that will be shaken by such a loss in a mere four years.
The Nationalists will know that if it happened to Muscat – despite his grip on every key State institution and despite the blatant, last-minute, votes-for-favours scramble – then it can happen to any government. They will have no room for complacency.
And this means that, whether the PN meant its governance proposals or not, they will have to deliver on them. The push will come from the party’s very MPs, who will have every incentive to hang on to their seats.
There is no guarantee they will succeed. What is guaranteed is their strong incentive to make sure they do. They will know that failure will mean a thrashing at the polls.
Upon recovering from its shock, Labour will also see the silver lining. If the electorate cannot be taken for granted by any government, then Labour in Opposition can begin to work to win back power in five years. It will be a huge impetus for its reformers and all those who want their party back.
And the small mainstream political parties, including Alternattiva Demokratika, will have something to work for. An electorate predisposed to give victory to an electoral alliance will clearly have shown itself an electorate willing to give coalitions and government by consensus a chance.
Second question: What surely changes if Muscat wins?
Muscat will have to govern without authority. He will only have raw power – the ability to coerce, intimidate and bend our institutions to his will.
He will be without authority even if he wins the general election with a clear, indisputable majority. Because what has emerged in this campaign has destroyed his moral credibility.
The Russian meddling ploy will ensure he can never appeal to gravitas. People will continue to laugh openly at him on the social media.
The leaks about the various kickback schemes, by his closest allies, will continue. During the election campaign, the institutions began to leak like a sieve about suppressed information and investigations. Those leaks can only be stopped by persecuting the whistle-blowers. But that means the wielding of naked power without real legitimacy.
There are only two sure changes on offer. Economic and political regress under Muscat. Or important constitutional changes under Busuttil – changes enforced by the sheer shock to the system that a Labour defeat would ensure
And then there are the electoral favours he will owe. Among the many promises he has made to ensure re-election there are the army promotions for roughly a quarter of the personnel; among other personnel, promotions promised include a huge leap across several salary scales.
Delivering on all those promises will destroy any semblance of meritocracy. Which can only mean that his ability to govern will depend, even more than before, on personal partisan loyalty. There will be little public service ethos left.
A democracy whose government rules by naked power alone, without authority, is inherently unstable. No authority means no moral legitimacy. So either the people reject it, or the democratic process itself slides back, into a cruder political form.
Muscat has set himself on a course where he cannot reverse his extreme clientalism without losing power. But the clientalism itself will undermine the basis of the modern economy, which needs a different basis.
Third question: What continuity are we guaranteed by Muscat?
He is himself claiming that he is needed if Malta’s economy is to continue to grow in a sustainable way. But don’t just listen to what he says. Look at what he does.
This week alone, he made it amply clear that Keith Schembri and Konrad Mizzi will continue to be key players in a second Muscat government.
Mizzi was a key speaker at a Labour event. Schembri sent an e-mail to the electorate that was even more revealing. In it he attacked the media for lying – when they were demonstrably reporting the truth about his suspicious secret business dealings and the truth about how the police covered up the investigations by the government’s own anti-money-laundering agency.
In addition, Schembri used his government position for partisan propaganda. And by saying that he had offered Muscat his resignation several times, he has shown how Muscat is inextricably entangled in the several cases against Schembri. He could have got rid of him but didn’t.
In other words, the attacks on Malta’s reputation in the financial field – the hit our reputation has taken – is directly Muscat’s responsibility. There were several occasions when he could have addressed the problem but chose not to.
There is one other continuity that we are guaranteed. No change in Police Commissioner, since the present complacent one has been far too helpful in his inaction.
And this leads to the fourth and final question: What definitely causes instability?
A police corps without credibility. A governing system based on raw power, not rule of law. A prime minister who has no moral authority.
Because when institutions don’t function, continued unrest is inevitable, as the system cannot address it properly.
Investors will be wary – as they are elsewhere when transparency and fairness are not guaranteed.
And the problems with Malta’s reputation will fail to be addressed. Because when they’re caused by Muscat’s own behaviour, no one will believe him – certainly not the financial industry, nor Malta’s European partners – when he offers a guarantee. What is a dodgy politician’s word worth?
Muscat cannot solve the instability that he has himself caused. That surely will not change. He couldn’t before, hence the early election. He cannot now, because his options have narrowed considerably.
So there are only two sure changes on offer. Economic and political regress under Muscat. Or important constitutional changes under Busuttil – changes enforced by the sheer shock to the system that a Labour defeat would ensure.
Those changes would bring our politics in line with our modern economy and open, pluralist civil society. They can only help stability.
ranierfsadni@europe.com